Liu Xia: Europe And The United States "Empty Horse"

　　 Euro Europe and America (EURUSD)

In the US, the long-term upward trend in the US dollar is a foregone conclusion. Compared with the euro area, the recovery of the US economy is ideal, though the employment rate and salary level still need to be improved. The US data released last week were $1 billion in total, while the expectation of raising interest rates in mid 2015 increased the chances of US dollar rising.

Eurozone economic form Not optimistic. In the second quarter, Italy's GDP final quarter rate shrank by 0.2%, confirming that the country has been in the mire of recession for the third time since 2008. The main reason for the recession is the reduction of fixed investment, the decline of agricultural output and the shrinkage of construction output. First quarter of France Gross domestic product The initial quarter growth rate was 0, and the annual rate in the first quarter was only 0.8%. Last week's political turmoil increased the uncertainty of the French economic trend.

The ECB's monetary policy further supports the situation in the medium and long run. With the recession of some Member States, the ECB is likely to launch the European version of QE at the end of the year or early next year. This month, the targeted long-term refinancing operation will start. In the case of negative economic growth and zero growth in countries such as Italy and France, there is also possibility for the central bank to cut interest rates this week.

In August 30th, at the EU summit in Brussels, the European Union and European leaders said they would renew Russia's new sanctions with renewed and stricter means. Once gold and silver lose short-term support, Europe and the United States may be pulled down.

Today, Europe and the United States rebounded slightly upward, is a good opportunity for short term short entry again.

　　 Australian dollar and Australian dollar (AUDUSD)

The September 2nd Australia central bank interest rate resolution in August and the second quarter of September 3rd were particularly noteworthy in GDP. Stevens, the chairman of the RBA, said the Australian dollar was too high and had repeatedly said that the Aussie dollar did not play its part in the economy, and the risk of falling prices was underestimated. As of this month, the Australian dollar rose 4.7% this year, showing "dragon horse spirit", becoming the "little black horse" in G10. The Australian dollar's recent economic data are mixed. In the short term, the Australian Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates.

From the first half of the year, Australia's economic growth in the first quarter reached 3.5%, and the number of employed persons in the second quarter increased by 110 thousand compared with the four quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, the strength of the commodity market has led to the rise of the Australian dollar. Speculative demand also makes the Australian dollar more attractive as a high interest currency.

Since July, more Australian dollar bears have begun to enter the market. In the face of good fundamentals, some of the bears have gradually left. After the Australian dollar shock adjustment, the rate of increase will slow down.

According to 2006-07 statistics, service industry, manufacturing industry, mining industry and agriculture are the four leading industries in Australia, and the output value of mining industry is 48 billion 750 million Australian dollars, accounting for 5.1% of GDP. However, in 2014, the obvious decline of mining capital expenditure has become one of the main reasons for pulling down economic growth. In the case of declining mineral investment, there are no other ways to replenish it.

In the second half of the year, the recession and geopolitical risks of some countries in the euro area may hamper the growth rate of the Australian dollar. At the same time, the Fed's monetary policy has made the dollar more popular. The number of non farm payrolls in the United States will be released at 20:30 in the evening of August this week, with a value of 209 thousand and a forecast of 216 thousand. This data will also provide more evidence for the Australian US trend.