India Cotton Export Recovery And Future Cotton Price Trend

India's industry has recently written that India cotton originally hoped to increase exports to China in the beginning of this year, but the situation was disappointing.

As India's domestic textile mills shut down and export orders fell, cotton prices approached the lowest support price.

At the same time, global market factors also had an impact.

The US cotton exports have been greatly reduced due to Sino US trade friction, and ICE futures have fallen from more than 80 cents to about 70 cents, and the market has become weak.

At present, the market recovery is starting, especially in the India market, export demand is beginning to pick up.

At present, India's domestic market has bottomed out, textile mills begin to purchase and rebuild stocks, and cotton prices show an upward trend.

However, there are some concerns about the supply of cotton in India.

Cotton production in 2018/19 has been reduced to about 32 million 500 thousand packs, but lower than the 35 million 500 thousand package production target. India's Ministry of agriculture and private projections are even lower, which may be closer to the actual situation.

In other words, the fundamentals of cotton in India are tightening.

Moreover, there are also concerns about cotton quality in India.

It is reported that non seasonal rainfall has damaged crops in some production areas and led to a decline in cotton quality. The supply of genuine high-quality cotton is decreasing. Shankar-6 is currently trading at about 42000 rupees / Kant (355 kg), and the demand is very high.

The trade representative believes that the price of S-6 will rise by at least 10% in the next few months to about 46000 rupees.

The price of other varieties will also rise.

Nevertheless, India traders believe that India has a great possibility of exporting about 5 million bales of cotton.

After selling cotton reserves in large quantities, China's demand for imported cotton will increase significantly in the future.

Since the beginning of this year, China has been purchasing Brazil cotton in large quantities, and India cotton has joined it.

Despite the pest problem in the past two years, the cotton planting area in India is expected to increase to 180 million mu in 2019/20, driven by price increases.

If the monsoon rains match, 2019/20 cotton production in India will rebound to more than 35 million bags.

In addition, the cotton planting area in the United States is likely to expand, and output in 2019/20 may also increase significantly.

Therefore, the global supply of cotton will be very abundant, production will exceed consumption, and inventory will also rise.

The extent to which global economic growth will slow will affect cotton consumption.