Review Of Cocoon Silk Market: Small Consolidation (9.29)

Today's (Sunday) market is mixed, and the cocoon silk composite index has dropped slightly to 0.08% at 3135.69.

B silk / dry cocoon: 141025 down 300 to 315 thousand / flat 99 thousand and 700, 150325 down 1500 to 318 thousand / down 100 to 104 thousand and 100, 150925 to fall, 900 to report earnings / fall.

57 hands were traded today, and the volume of storage remained unchanged.

China's economic growth, from high speed to medium speed, is called the "new normal", and the domestic market has entered a period of slow increment. The contradiction between homogenization and excess is speeding up the survival of the fittest in the industry and enterprises. Perhaps only by limiting production can we save ourselves.

Low area entered late autumn silkworm rearing stage.

Jiaxing City

In late autumn, there were 9336.5 species of silkworm hair, which decreased by 1338.75 compared to the same period, and decreased by 12.54%.

In late autumn, silkworm rearing increased by 6482.5 more than that of this year's mid autumn silkworm rearing, an increase of 227.14%, thus achieving a healthy adjustment of autumn silkworm distribution.

Because this year's 7, 8 and September three months, the temperature is not high, the rain is more, is very beneficial.

The growth, development and reproduction of the fourth, fifth generation of mulberry borer will cause disaster and bring great difficulties to the late autumn silkworms.

In late autumn, silkworms were raised by ants in September 27th.

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Judging from the disk, cotton futures main contract 1501 increased 4.03%, 510 yuan / ton, closed at 13170 yuan / ton, and the total daily turnover of all contracts was 771846 hands, the total holding position was 779682 hands.

Although the temporary purchase and storage policy for Zheng cotton's "escort" role was declared closed this year, the direct subsidy measures were implemented, and cotton price was thus lost support. However, in order to maintain the smooth and normal operation of the cotton market, the state made every effort to ensure the success of the target price reform pilot. In the morning of September 25th, according to the State Council's deployment, the eight departments of the national development and Reform Commission held the "national cotton working teleconference".

According to the contents announced after the meeting, the government has delivered the following four positive messages to the market:

First, because the global cotton production in 2014/2015 will continue to exceed consumption in the past fifth years, the situation of excess supply forces the domestic cotton prices to continue to go down. Therefore, in order to solve the pressure of supply side, the state stops the work of storing cotton and puts out the elimination space for the purchase and sale of new cotton, which is conducive to stabilizing and recovering cotton prices.

Second, in order to indirectly protect domestic cotton prices and prevent a sharp fall, we should arrange cotton imports rationally.

In addition to issuing 894 thousand tons of tariff quotas, the import quota will not be increased in principle, which will reduce the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic cotton market at the import end, and prevent overflowing of overseas cotton from entering the country, thus creating a price shock.

Third, the Chinese cotton group is required to take the lead in entering the market, purchase cotton at the base price of 14000 yuan / ton, and ask for the calculation of the acquisition cost. Based on the purchase price, the cotton ginning enterprises of various departments should be liberalized to ensure the stability of the cotton market.

In addition, we should give full play to the leading role of China cotton group and lead the market acquisition, supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers.

Fourthly, strengthen the supervision of cotton futures market.

While leading cotton companies to actively participate in cotton futures, it is hard to crack down on the use of excessive speculation in the futures market.

Judging from the effect of the new deal, the first two positive information will undoubtedly weaken the supply pressure of the domestic cotton market, while the third one will play a protective effect.

It can be found that after the two old supply valves were shut down and the new cotton supply was difficult to meet the market demand, the old cotton was stopped and the import of new cotton was limited.

According to the China Cotton Association survey, it is estimated that cotton planting area will be 63 million 400 thousand mu this year, a decrease of 9.4% over the previous year, and the output will be 6 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 500 thousand tons over the previous year.

If China's textile enterprises need to pick up cotton demand in 2014/2015, it is expected to reverse the pattern of oversupply of domestic cotton in the new year.

The estimated demand for cotton in the new year is 8 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of about 500 thousand tons over the previous year.

At the same time, the cotton price of the new year will be narrowed gradually after the market is led by the market. This will curb the substitution and reduction of chemical fiber and import of cotton yarn, and the demand for cotton will also be restored.

As a result, the domestic cotton production and demand gap will reach 2 million tons in the new year, an increase of 1 million tons over the previous year.

Since the beginning of this year, the state has launched a pilot project on cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, and has abolished the policy of temporarily collecting and storing the whole country, so that the new cotton price will be formed from the market and gradually build a new system of cotton purchase and sale.

The author believes that based on the support of the new deal, the cotton market in the future will bid farewell to the "soft" and "sick" attitude of the past and open a new path of healthy sunshine.