International Observation: Can The Planting Area Of American Cotton Increase Significantly In 2022

 

Jody Campeche, vice president of economics at the National Cotton Council (NCC), also said that fertilizer prices and supply conditions may increase cotton planting in most parts of the United States in 2022, but the size of crops in the western United States remains problematic due to water supply and drought.

A private organization in the United States predicted in mid December 2021 that the planting area of cotton in the United States would be 12.093 million mu in 2022, an increase of 8% over the same period of the same period last year. However, people in other industries predicted that cotton planting in the United States would be expanded by 15-25%. Obviously, a consensus has been reached in the industry that the US cotton planting area will increase significantly year on year in 2022, and the focus of debate is the growth rate.

Foreign businessmen and several large-scale cotton trading enterprises do not agree with the judgment that the cotton planting area of the United States will increase significantly year on year in 2022

One is that the drought and high temperature in Texas, which accounts for nearly one third of the cotton planting area in the United States, has not subsided, soil moisture continues to deteriorate, and there are great variables in cotton planting rate. Although most of the cotton growing areas in the United States have experienced rain and snow since late January, the southwest and Central South cotton regions have not quenched their thirst (only local sporadic precipitation in West Texas since the beginning of winter), and the drought continues.

Second, the industry's concerns about the serious delay of US cotton shipment in 2022 has intensified, and farmers and exporters have also appealed to growers not to expand cotton production in large areas. According to USDA statistics, due to the serious delay in the harvest and processing of new cotton in the United States and the difficulty in solving the logistics problems, as of the end of December, the US cotton shipment volume decreased by 45% (exports to China decreased by 70% and exports to Vietnam by 50%).

According to seaexplorer, 612 container ships are currently berthing or drifting outside ports such as Los Angeles, long beach, Seattle, Vancouver, Prince Rupert, Auckland, New York, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Rotterdam and Antwerp. However, 80% of the world's port congestion occurs in North America.

In addition, the sharp increase in the cost of chemical fertilizer in the United States is also a problem that has to be considered. According to foreign news, the wholesale price of chemical fertilizer in the United States decreased significantly in January, but the current retail price is still twice that of last year, and the pressure of cost may limit the scope of cotton expansion in the United States.