Fanatical Concept Of Heterojunction: The Share Price Of Leading Companies Has Quadrupled, The Market Value Has Approached 80 Billion, And The Pace Of Industrialization Has Been Accelerated

        Capital is boosting the share price of A-share PV heterojunction leader concept to a new high. The stock price of Maiwei shares rose to 700 yuan and Jinchen shares exceeded 150 yuan. Some investors even told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the pursuit of the concept of heterojunction in the secondary market exceeded his expectation.

Indeed, behind the capital carnival, the wave of heterojunction is indeed coming, and new and old players are constantly adding weight.

      On the evening of August 23, when Jingao Technology (002459. SZ), a leading domestic photovoltaic module enterprise, announced its financial report for the first half of this year, it even put forward a fixed increase plan of 5 billion yuan. According to the use plan, the company plans to use 300 million yuan of raised funds for the "high efficiency solar cell research and development pilot project", which will directly become the main factor of the trading limit of Jingao technology on August 24.

21st century economic reporter noticed that this pilot project is the official publicity of Jingao technology on the research and development and industrial layout of heterojunction batteries. The company believes that "the construction of this project will help the company to establish a more mature GW level heterojunction battery production line, lay a solid foundation for large-scale production, and provide a research and development platform for further improving efficiency and reducing cost."

The share prices of leading stocks have increased several times, and new and old players have continued to layout, which reflects the current enthusiasm of heterojunction industry“ At present, it is generally believed in the industry that 2022 will be an important year for heterojunction to have industrialization cost performance and industrial explosion. Before that, we will certainly have layout and share a share. " A new energy analyst with a securities firm told the 21st century economic reporter.

Who is the heterojunction on fire?

      Recently, the hot concept of heterojunction can not be described as "concept stocks are sought after by funds".

According to incomplete statistics, the current domestic heterojunction planning capacity has exceeded 60GW, and the new and old manufacturers have replaced the layout. Among the new enterprises, Mingyang intelligent group and Runyang group plan 5GW capacity, diamond glass planned capacity is 1.2gw, and Anhui Huasheng's current production line capacity has reached 500MW.

As a matter of fact, heterojunction is one of the technology directions of the next generation battery, which is widely recognized in the industry, and is more valued by battery module enterprises. 21st century economic reporter learned that at present, Longji (601012. SH), Trina Solar (688599. SH), Atlas and Jingao technology are also starting to develop and reserve the technology. The most concerned is the 1GW mass production line of Tongwei (600438. SH) Jintang base. As the first battery of the project is offline, the mass production data of PECVD, the main equipment of the production line, is expected to be published intensively in September, which will further reflect the pace of heterojunction commercialization.

According to the statistics of solarzoom new energy think tank, up to now, the global production capacity of heterojunction batteries with practical significance is 5.26gw, including 1.64gw overseas and 3.62gw at home. Of the 3.62gw of actual capacity, only 1.75gw is from the mass production line, and the rest are from the pilot production line.

"We have reason to believe that in the next five years, the penetration rate of hjt heterojunction technology will increase rapidly from less than 1% now to more than 70% Li zhuiyang, head of Qianshi Zhongyou fund, held the "2021hjt heterojunction commercialization and mass production Summit Forum" recently held by solarzoom, he believed that more and more new capital and new faces appeared in the hjt (heterojunction), and this year it is precisely that heterojunction technology has just entered the "right" node with high certainty of low cost commercial mass production, It is more optimistic about the performance of heterojunction track in the capital market.

It is undeniable that in the past three months, a number of heterojunction concept stocks have been hyped by funds in turn.

The wind heterojunction battery index has increased by 61.51% since May this year. Among the constituent stocks included in the index, Jinchen shares (603396. SH), Maiwei shares (300751. SZ), Tongwei shares and Jiejia Weichuang (300724. SZ) have increased by more than 30% since the beginning of the year. And in the near future, Jinchen's gains have caught up - more than 413% since May.

However, the "magic" of heterojunction concept is also reflected in "saving" the share price of a listed company whose controlling shareholder fell into bankruptcy and reorganization.

In the past three weeks, Aikang Technology (002610. SZ) shares rose 64.52%, and reached a new high in recent three years on August 24.

The abnormal fluctuation of stock price once caused the company to make self clarification, "as of the date of disclosure of this announcement, there is no need to correct or supplement the information disclosed by the company in the previous period; The company has not found any unpublished major information that may or has had a great impact on the company's stock trading price recently reported by the public media; At present, the company's production and operation situation is normal, and there is no significant change in the company's business situation and internal and external business environment in the near future; After verification, the company does not have any major events that should be disclosed but not disclosed, and there are no major events in the planning stage

      Since the controlling shareholder Aikang applied to the court for bankruptcy reorganization last year, Aikang technology, as a subsidiary, has been affected by the parent company to a certain extent, and its share price has been in a downturn.

What investors are worried about is whether the liquidity crisis encountered by controlling shareholders will be repeated on Alcon? As of August 21, the total amount of external guarantee approved by Aikang Technology Co., Ltd. and its holding subsidiaries was 14.354 billion yuan, accounting for about 211.12% of the company's latest audited net assets.

At the same time, Aikang technology is now facing a loss situation. According to the company's performance forecast released recently, it is expected to lose 60 million yuan to 80 million yuan in the first half of the year, and make a profit of 27 million yuan in the same period last year.

Fortunately, the theme of heterojunction helps Aikang technology to return to the view of capital.

On August 13, Aikang technology and zheneng power (600023. SH) signed the investment agreement on Zhejiang Aikang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., which agreed that zheneng power planned to invest 300 million yuan to subscribe for the new registered capital of Zhejiang Aikang optoelectronics. After the completion of the capital increase, zheneng power will hold 20% shares of Zhejiang Aikang optoelectronics, and all the capital raised will be used for the construction, production and operation of Zhejiang Aikang optoelectronic Huzhou Changxing high efficiency heterojunction (hjt) photovoltaic cell and laminated tile module project.

The 21st century economic report reporter learned that at present, Aikang heterojunction icell battery has been put into mass production with an average efficiency of more than 24%. However, the equipment is mainly imported until the second production line is replaced by domestic equipment, and plans to realize the full production plan of 2.4gw capacity in Huzhou base by the end of this year.

Who has heterojunction achieved?

Some people say that 2021 is the first year of investment in heterojunction industry, and 2022 is the first year of cost reduction.

Whether it is the pursuit of heterojunction concept by capital market funds, the intensive follow-up investigation of heterojunction industry by securities companies, or the increase of industrial investment by heterojunction enterprises, all kinds of signs indicate that the pace of heterojunction commercialization is accelerating.

"The financial market's understanding of hjt has risen from 'concept and story' to 'belief' in photovoltaic manufacturing industry and even carbon neutrality.". According to Ma Yiwei, director of solarzoom new energy think tank. Wang Wenjing, CTO of Anhui Huasheng, said the heterojunction battery will enter the 10GW era, and "this era is very close.".

In the statistical analysis of securities companies, the reason why 2021 is the first year of heterojunction investment and mass production is that the industry scale is constantly expanding. Zheshang Securities said in this analysis, "with the localization of equipment, the reduction of silver slurry and target material costs, as well as the" efficiency + cost reduction "brought by the improvement of conversion efficiency, the industry may enter the stage of explosion in 2022, and the scale of expansion is expected to reach more than 30GW."

However, these are based on the prediction of the future market size, and to achieve the corresponding mass production scale, cost reduction is still the key factor to promote heterojunction industrialization.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, domestic manufacturers are investing in equipment, materials and battery. Among them, in the equipment sector, Jiejia Weichuang and Maiwei have realized the localization of the whole line of heterojunction production line, and then the thrust of continuous cost reduction is mainly in the performance optimization of domestic equipment and localization of imported parts and components; In the material sector, TECO (300842. SZ) and Suzhou Jingyin have made continuous breakthroughs in large-scale mass production of domestic silver paste; In the aspect of battery chip, Tongwei, Dongfang Risheng (300118. SZ), Aikang technology and other companies have conducted small-scale bidding for heterojunction production line projects, accelerating the progress of pilot production line.

"With the localization of equipment, the reduction of silver slurry and target cost, and the highlight of" efficiency + cost reduction "benefits brought about by the improvement of conversion efficiency, the industry will surely enter the stage of rapid explosion in 2022." According to Zhou Jian, chairman of MCW, the scale of heterojunction expansion will reach 10-15gw by the end of 2021.

It is worth noting that in this round of hype about heterojunction concept, equipment manufacturers are undoubtedly at the forefront.

In recent three months, Jinchen shares, whose stock prices have risen four times, Maiwei shares, whose market value once exceeded 78 billion yuan, and Jiejia Weichuang, whose stock price has reached a record high, have carried the banner of hot speculation of heterojunction concept.

Objectively speaking, compared with the current total cost of perc battery, which is about 0.7 yuan / W, there is still a lot of room for cost reduction of heterojunction battery. Zheshang Securities said in this analysis, "we expect that all costs are expected to decline in the future, and it is expected that hjt will reach a cost range equivalent to that of perc by 2022."

Specifically, the cost reduction is mainly concentrated in four aspects: at the silicon wafer end, with the demand of n-type silicon wafer in the future, the scale effect will reduce the premium space between n-type and p-type silicon chip; At the equipment end, with the "cost reduction + efficiency improvement" of domestic equipment, there is a large space for cost reduction of equipment investment; In the aspect of silver paste materials, the localization of low temperature silver paste can open up the space of cost reduction; In the target end, the dependence on imports will be reduced by improving the target utilization rate, large-scale recycling, azo substitution on the back and localization.

It is worth mentioning that the application of microcrystalline technology will help to improve the conversion efficiency of heterojunction cells. According to Zhou Jian, the mass production efficiency of the battery can easily reach 26% with heterojunction superimposed microcrystalline technology. "Maiwei's Microcrystalline mass production equipment will be launched by the end of this year."

As equipment accounts for half of the value of the whole line, equipment manufacturers will become one of the main beneficiaries when the wave of heterojunction industrialization comes.

"In the next five years, the market space scale of heterojunction equipment is expected to reach 40 billion to 50 billion yuan, and there will be 100 billion market value companies." The analysts told reporters of the 21st century economic report.