Textile Enterprises Replenish Warehouse To Cool Down Market Trend

According to the feedback of cotton trading enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong and other places, the main contract of Zheng cotton rebounded with 17000 yuan / ton last week, and the enthusiasm of cotton mills and middlemen to inquire about and take delivery of goods decreased significantly. In addition to the strong difference of "buy it now" transaction, the sales of basis point price tended to be cold.

A cotton enterprise in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, said that in recent days, in addition to the increase in the sales price of long staple cotton in Xinjiang, the signing and delivery of Xinjiang cotton in 2020 / 21 turnover inventory in and outside Xinjiang were relatively slow, and the atmosphere of wait-and-see of cotton mills holding money was relatively strong. It is worth noting that since the end of July, the transaction of reserved cotton is relatively active, which is obviously better than that in the same period of 2019 and 2020. Some small and medium-sized textile enterprises that have not participated in the bidding of reserved cotton or have not entrusted cotton traders to auction directly purchase reserve cotton.

From the survey, the current cotton textile enterprises not only have large differences in raw material inventory, but also have great differences in the judgment of cotton trend from August to September. One view is that the consumption recovery is strong in the second half of the year. Under the influence of the expected increase in the price of new cotton in 2021 / 22, the reduction of Xinjiang cotton production and the change of monetary policy from tight to loose, the cotton period is still in the upward channel, and it is still early from the inflection point. Therefore, the probability of cf2201 contract breaking another 18000 yuan / ton is relatively large, and the operation is mainly to take goods at low prices.

The other view is more cautious or even pessimistic. It thinks that the global and domestic epidemic situation is tense again, the shipping charges and surcharges continue to rise sharply, and the containers in the US and Europe routes are extremely tense. Although the domestic textile and clothing enterprises have a relatively prosperous list, their profit margins are low and even cry out for loss. At present, the cotton import quota of 700000 tons sliding standard tax is issued in batches (the validity period is up to December 31, 2021), and the rotation of reserved cotton before the end of September is orderly, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. Therefore, cf2201 contract may fluctuate between 17000-18000 yuan / ton before and after the listing of new cotton.

A trader in Henan believes that the recent rainstorm disaster and outbreak of epidemic in Henan, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan and other places have affected cotton mills' order receiving, production, transportation and delivery to a certain extent. Therefore, it has strong support for cotton yarn futures, but it remains to be seen how long it can last.