Where Does The Judgment Of Stability And Stability Come From

In the first half of this year, China's economy has continued to recover steadily and steadily. China's scientific and technological self-reliance has been actively promoted. Reform and opening-up have been intensified. People's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, new achievements have been made in high-quality development, and the overall social situation has remained stable.

Under the background of global epidemic situation and complex and severe international environment, why is China's economy stable? Where is stability? Can the upward trend be sustained? The reporter of economic daily interviewed relevant experts and scholars.

　　 The foundation of economic recovery continued to consolidate

"To judge the economic situation, we should not only look at the year-on-year, but also the month on month comparison, the average growth rate in two years, the short board and the growth of endogenous power, as well as some leading parameters." Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said.

Data show that the average growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter; The average growth rate in the second quarter was 5.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. In terms of month on month, GDP in the second quarter grew by 1.3%, 0.9 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter.

The sustained and stable recovery of the economy and the improvement in stability are reflected in the steady rise of the three industries.

Agricultural production has been steadily improving, and summer grain production has reached a new high, achieving "three increases" in area, unit area and total output. The average growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size in two years is still slightly higher than that before the epidemic, and the capacity utilization rate is at a higher level in recent years; In the first half of the year, the added value of manufacturing accounted for 27.9% of GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of the added value of the service industry to economic growth reached 53%, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

The sustained and stable recovery of economy and the improvement in stability are reflected in the continuous improvement of quality and efficiency.

The profits of enterprises have increased greatly. In the first half of the year, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 66.9% year-on-year, 45.5% compared with the same period in 2019, and the average growth rate in two years was 20.6%.

Fiscal revenue grew rapidly. In the first half of the year, China's general public budget revenue was 11711.6 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year and 8.6% higher than that of the same period in 2019.

The growth of residents' income is basically synchronous with the economic growth. In the first half of the year, China's per capita disposable income increased by 12% year-on-year and 5.2% in two years, 0.7 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

The sustained and stable recovery of the economy and the improvement in stability are also reflected in the overall stability of employment prices.

Improving people's livelihood is the starting point and the end result of economic and social development. In the first half of the year, 6.98 million new urban jobs were created, accounting for 63.5% of the annual target. Various regions and departments took various measures to ensure supply and price stability, which ensured the effective supply of important livelihood goods and industrial goods, and promoted the overall stability of market prices.

　　 The endogenous growth momentum has steadily increased

"In the first half of this year, domestic demand continued to recover steadily, contributing 80.9% to economic growth, an increase of 4.9% over the first quarter, providing sufficient impetus for the economy to stabilize and improve." Hu Zuquan, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said.

In terms of consumption, "ballast" is more stable and sufficient. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 61.7%, which was 42.5 percentage points higher than the total capital formation, and the consumption of upgrading goods increased rapidly.

Looking at the investment, we should increase the stamina, make up for the weakness and promote the vitality. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets increased by 12.6% year-on-year and 4.4% in two years, 1.5 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter. Investment in high-tech industry and social sector increased by 14.6% and 10.7% respectively in the past two years, faster than 10.2% and 6.3% respectively“ High tech investment with strong momentum, social sector investment to supplement the weak points, and private investment reflecting market vitality are accelerating. " Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said.

Hu Zuquan believed that while coordinating the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the favorable factors supporting the further recovery of domestic demand are increasing. In terms of consumption demand, first, there is a foundation. The overall employment situation is stable, the people's livelihood security is more powerful, and the income of residents is expected to be steadily restored, providing income guarantee for the recovery of consumption. Second, there is motivation. With the rapid expansion of new consumption, online and offline integration is accelerated, the time and space range of consumption is significantly expanded, and the consumption transaction is more efficient. Third, there is potential. China contains a large volume, multi-level and diversified consumption upgrading potential. Fourth, there are policies. A series of policies to promote consumption will come into effect.

In terms of investment, first, we have confidence in the development of enterprises. In keeping with the urgent needs of market entities, the state has implemented a series of policies, such as tax reduction and fee reduction, direct access mechanism of financial funds, direct tools of monetary policy and Inclusive Finance, which have greatly enhanced the development confidence of market entities. Second, investment funds are guaranteed. Corporate profits have improved significantly, and financial support for the real economy has been further strengthened. In the first half of the year, fixed assets investment funds increased by 16.8% year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of investment. Third, there are reserves for major projects“ Major engineering projects identified in the 14th five year plan are being deployed and pushed forward in succession, and the reserve of investment projects in various regions is relatively abundant.

Looking at foreign trade, the quantity and quality of import and export increase. In the first half of the year, China's import and export scale of 18.07 trillion yuan reached the best level in the same period in history, with an increase of 22.8% compared with the same period in 2019. The monthly import and export has achieved positive growth year-on-year for 13 consecutive months.

Looking at the vitality, the activity of the main body of the market has been improved. Judging China's economic performance depends not only on the macro overall data, but also on the micro subjective feelings. Since the beginning of this year, tax reduction and fee reduction policies have continued to show the effect of bailing out market entities. The reform of "deregulation, management and service" has been deepened, and enterprise confidence has been stable and improved. In the first half of the year, the total number of new tax related market entities in China reached 6.243 million, an increase of 27.3% over 2020 and 22.8% compared with that in 2019.

Looking at the potential, the momentum of innovation has been continuously enhanced. In the first half of this year, the trend of industrial upgrading was obvious, and the new driving force grew stronger. The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 205%, 69.8% and 48.1% respectively on a year-on-year basis, with an average growth rate of more than 30% in two years; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16.5% on average in the past two years, accounting for 23.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

　　 Confident to achieve the annual targets and tasks

Why can China's economy recover steadily and improve steadily? Experts believe that since this year, various regions and departments have made concerted efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, maintain policy continuity, stability and sustainability, maintain necessary support for economic recovery, and continuously release macro policy effects, thus achieving remarkable results in promoting China's economic recovery.

In Liu Yuanchun's view, China's effective prevention and control of the epidemic situation has created conditions for sustained economic recovery. Last year, a package of macro policies with "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" as the main body was issued in a timely manner. China's industrial chain supply chain showed great power during the epidemic period, which not only provided a solid material foundation for the world's epidemic resistance, but also promoted the growth of China's foreign demand.

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the strong implementation of macro policies has played an important role in the recovery of economic stability. Stable and sustainable monetary policy, scientific management of market expectations, effective prevention and control of financial risks, stable expectations of the RMB exchange rate, enhanced two-way floating flexibility, and played a macroeconomic stabilizer function. China's economy still has the sustained momentum of medium and long-term stable development.

In the first half of the year, the steady recovery of China's economy has not been easy. Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics, said that to do a good job in the economic work in the second half of the year, we should better coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, do a good job in cross cycle regulation, keep the economic operation in a reasonable range, and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

(source: Economic Daily - China economic network)