From Offline To Online, How Do Sports Brands Respond To The Epidemic?

Combined with Taobao online data and offline store research, we judged that the sports industry's data in January were still beautiful, but 2-3 months were greatly affected by the epidemic.

(1) demand inhibition and logistics;

2. The rigidity of cost cost has a greater impact on net profit.

3. Stocking and opening stores in the two quarter and the three quarter will affect future growth.

Faced with the impact of the epidemic, all leading brands actively promote online sales, and strive to communicate with express companies to ensure the timeliness of logistics delivery. At the same time, they are actively negotiating with the shopping center to fight for rent reduction and deduction. We believe that under the impact of the black swan event, the whole sports industry is facing impact, and the industry is expected to accelerate the reshuffle. At this stage, companies with comprehensive capabilities are more likely to stand out. The leading brands of domestic sports brands, Anta and Lining, have built up deep barriers in product creation / brand power / supply chain integration / channel control and so on after years of operation and sedimentation. They also have abundant cash flow and capital reserves. They also accumulated certain industry crisis response capabilities in 2013-2014 years of industry adjustment, and are relatively more capable of resisting risks and are more likely to be affected. It benefits the consolidation of industries, constantly evolving capabilities and accelerating the upgrading of share.

　　 Industry January online data latest tracking: epidemic has not yet spread, business continuity

The overall situation of the industry: the sports footwear industry continued to boom in January, and the growth rate of sportswear was faster than that of sports shoes. According to Amoy data, the growth rate of online sportswear / sports shoes retail sales in January 2020 was 11.1%/37.4%, which was changed from sales drive to unit price promotion in 11 and December. From 2019.11 to 2020.1, the ASP growth rate of sportswear sportswear was 0.3%/17.4%/25.0% and the ASP growth rate of sports shoes was -9.8%/0.8%/9.6% respectively. In January, sales of sports shoes and clothing were not affected by the epidemic. We think the main reason is that sales are concentrated before the outbreak of the outbreak of the Spring Festival.

　　 Short term effects? In January, the impact was small, -3 months in February were significant, and April -5 months remained to be observed.

In January, leading sports companies at home and abroad were less affected and still maintained good growth. The last week's sales were affected. From a specific company:

Anta: in the comprehensive survey, we judged that Anta bulk goods still had a single digit growth compared to last January. Among them, the sales growth of Amoy platform sportswear / sports shoes was 20%/9%, FILA also continued to increase. In January, sales of Amoy sports shoes increased by more than 200%.

Lining: we also judged that we maintained good growth, of which the sales growth rate of the sportswear sportswear / sports shoes was 20%/9%.

Nike: Amoy sportswear / sports shoes sales growth was 7%/7%.

Adidas: Amoy sportswear / sports shoes sales growth was 100%+/12%.

February -3 months, the temporary closure of the line affects the overall sales. Affected by the epidemic, we estimate that more than half of the shops in Anta / Lining are temporarily closed, and the number of shops still operating is also narrowed. It is expected to have a negative impact on the company's offline running, inventory and shop opening.

Running water: considering the impact of closing stores and passenger flow, almost all stores in the early February did not generate revenue. Along with the resumption of work in February 10th, shops on the street have been resumed, and the volume of passenger traffic is expected to increase slightly. Overall, the actual sales of stores may be less than 20% or even less during the epidemic in February.

Inventory: Q2's goods have been completed, assuming that the epidemic continues until April, will generate pressure on Q2 inventory. Follow up needs to increase the intensity of inventory clearance.

Shop: affect the progress of opening stores, the first quarter of the shop arrangements for the overall push.

　　 How to deal with it? From offline to online, national sales, online firepower

Faced with the epidemic, leading companies are also actively coping with:

Anta has promoted online sales of all staff, launched and launched online Anta micro Mall for each region, and actively processed products under the line, and has achieved remarkable results in recent days. After the end of the epidemic, the micro mall may become a new growth point of the company.

Lining also actively promoted the online marketing of all staff, and promoted publicity and promotion with the help of friends circle. In addition, the company actively cooperate with Hua Chenyu and other top traffic stars, making long-term reserves in brand endorsement and e-commerce activities planning. It is expected that the outbreak will soon exert itself to make up for the negative effects of the epidemic.

Long-term impact? Accelerating industry integration and promoting online operation

Under the impact of the black swan event, the whole sports industry is facing impact, and the industry is expected to accelerate the shuffle. At this stage, we think that companies with comprehensive capabilities are more likely to stand out. The leading brands of domestic sports brands, Anta and Lining, have built up deep barriers in product creation / brand power / supply chain integration / channel control and so on after years of operation and sedimentation. They also have abundant cash flow and capital reserves. They also accumulated certain industry crisis response capabilities in 2013-2014 years of industry adjustment, and are relatively more capable of resisting risks and are more likely to be affected. It benefits the consolidation of industries, constantly evolving capabilities and accelerating the upgrading of share.

On the other hand, for example, the emerging channels such as micro mall / vip.com / spelling and so on have played a positive role in replenish online consumption, drain line consumption and open up new customers. The future is expected to become an important potential consumer channel with increased investment and deeper cooperation.