Outbreak Of Desert Locust In East Africa And West Asia

According to the statistics of business community, as of February 17, 2020, the average price of the domestic lint spot market was 13429 yuan / ton, which fell 0.14% from last Monday (2.10), down 13.49% from the same period last year. The heat of domestic cotton rink was dispersed, and desert locusts were rarely seen in East Africa and West Asia.

In February 17th, Zheng cotton main contract 2005 contract limit, the lowest reported 13055 yuan / ton, closing price 13510 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day prices rose 520 yuan / ton, or 4%, 636829 hands trading volume, 513807 positions.

　　 Positive factors

In February 16th, the national cotton Federation (NCC) estimated that in February 16th, the US cotton planting area would be 13 million acres, a decrease of 5.5% over the same period last year. Because of the fall in cotton prices and the increase in corn and soybean prices this year, the US farmers' intentions for planting cotton have weakened. The United States, the largest exporter of cotton, has cut output or boosted cotton prices.

As the epidemic is under control, the conditions for resuming work have gradually improved and cotton consumption is expected to rebound. From February 17th to 7000 tons per day, we will see no deal. Trading volume is far less than the beginning of the resumption of business. Traders' current mentality is much more wait-and-see, and spot prices are almost flat in the past week.

　　 hot topic

African locusts entered western Asia, multinational countries entered a state of emergency, and domestic agricultural products increased. Expert monitoring, if not curbed, may reach 500 times as many as 360 billion in June. The probability of locusts spreading and outbreaks in Pakistan is high, which may cause grain production reduction by 30%~50%, and 5 million 550 thousand acres of farmland in India have been damaged. Today, domestic farm product futures prices generally rise, some strong trading, capital speculation factors. According to the Xinjiang area, the locusts were not found at this stage, coupled with the low temperature in Xinjiang, and the conditions for migratory activities of grasshoppers and adults were about 40 degrees Celsius. At the same time, locusts' monitoring, early warning and control capabilities are continuously improving. The level of prevention and control technology is the leading level in the world. There are sufficient reserves of locusts and locusts, and the risk of large Locust Outbreaks in locust is very low.

On the other hand, the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system showed that as of the beginning of February, the average number of cotton stocks used by the enterprises surveyed was about 54.1 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 22.2 days, an increase of 9.5 days compared with the same period last year. Projections of the national cotton industry inventory of about 1 million 125 thousand tons, an increase of 69.6%, an increase of 14.1% over the same period last year. Raw material procurement is more likely to be watched, stable cotton distribution will be strong, enterprise capital turnover and employment situation will be worse, yarn and cloth production and sales rate will drop larger and stock will increase significantly.

In 2020, the US cotton production is expected to be cut down, and domestic reemployment conditions are gradually improving. However, the overall operating rate of short term cotton market is certainly not as good as in previous years, plus the increase in cotton inventories, the difficulty in capital turnover, and the sharp decline in production and marketing. Business analysts believe that spot prices remain stable, and there is a slight room for Zheng cotton to move forward.