2020 PTA Market Trend: Smooth Expansion Of Capacity, Lack Of Upward Momentum.

Bid farewell to 2019 welcomed the 2020, in 2019 experienced new production capacity, low processing fees, futures explosion, value-added tax rates fell, options listed and other events, the PTA market in 2020 initially showed a low processing fee, increased production capacity, stock growth stalemate.

Supply demand pattern

Two thousand and twenty New capacity statistics for PTA

Manufacturer's name	Estimated capacity (10000 tons)	region	Planned production time
New materials of Xinjiang Zhongtai Kun Yu	One hundred and twenty	Xinjiang	Two thousand and twenty Products were released at 23:58 on January 2nd, 2006.
Hengli Petrochemical 4	Two hundred and fifty	Dalian	Two thousand and twenty January 8th 125W feed
Hengli Petrochemical 5	Two hundred and fifty	Dalian	Two thousand and twenty 4-5 months
Fujian Petrochemical Co., Ltd.	Two hundred and fifty	Fujian	Two thousand and twenty August 2013
CICC (Rong Sheng)	Three hundred	Zhejiang	Two thousand and twenty The three or four quarter of 2014
2 phase of new Feng Ming Group	Two hundred and twenty	Zhejiang	Two thousand and twenty The three or four quarter of 2014
Honggang Petrochemical 2	Two hundred and twenty	Jiangsu	Two thousand and twenty End of the year
Total	One thousand six hundred and ten

Source: lung Chung

The cost side PX support is still acceptable, because Hengyi Brunei and Zhejiang Petrochemical new capacity runs smoothly, coupled with the intensified maintenance of domestic PTA devices, restores the warehouse again, and at the same time PX and naphtha oil price difference has been restored. But in the 1 quarter of the Spring Festival, the PX Japan Korea plant is facing a centralized overhaul and the new capacity of PTA is about to be released, and the cost PX will shake up. From the point of view of PTA's own supply, the price of the PTA market rose in the early January when the PTA market was affected by the situation of the United States and Iran, and the price of crude oil was lifted. Subsequently, because the US Iraq market did not intend to start a war, the market's worries about the tension in the Middle East continued to slow down. IEA predicted that the demand for crude oil would not improve significantly. International oil prices continued to fall. Meanwhile, the market fundamentals of the PTA itself were empty. Xinjiang's Sino Thai 1 million 200 thousand PTA plant was put into operation in January 2nd, and the 4 phase of Hengli has also been put into operation. It is expected that mass production will be completed by the end of this month. In January, the supply of PTA increased steadily. Near the end of the Spring Festival, there was a continuous reduction in the production of polyester, which resulted in the continuous decline of the polyester starting rate. Therefore, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the supply of PTA increased, and the weaker demand pattern was the true portrayal of PTA. The embarrassing situation of the dilemma also made the PTA market somewhat powerless.

Demand is coming to an end.

Less than two weeks away from the Spring Festival, polyester factories cut their production and maintenance to the climax stage. The trend of demand weakening has continued, and the PTA storage pattern has been set. The PTA processing fee has been slightly restored with the PX price callback, which is still at a low level with the PX price callback. This week, the newly installed PET plant parking device has 1 sets of 250 thousand tons / year, 1 sets of 200 thousand tons / year polyester plant in Changle, Fujian, which stopped and overhauled in January 11th and January 13th respectively. The device was equipped with polyester filament and staple fiber respectively. A set of 250 thousand tons / year polyester plant was set up in January 12th to stop and overhaul the device, which mainly matched the production of polyester filament. 1 sets of 200 thousand tons / year polyester plant in Wujiang area were stopped and overhauled in January 13th. The device mainly matched polyester filament production; a 250 thousand ton annual polyester plant in Taicang was planned to stop and repair at the beginning of January 13th. At present From the perspective of downstream weaving, at present, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is around 43%, and the ratio of the textile industry has dropped by 12 percentage points. After the holiday, the resumption time mainly focused on Yu Zheng from eight to fifteen in the beginning of the month. Some of them were later planned to resume operation from fifteen to twenty in January.

integrated forecasting

Two thousand and twenty Annual PTA price trend forecast

Source: lung Chung

2020 will be a year of rapid expansion of PTA production capacity, with a projected volume of 16 million 100 thousand tons throughout the year, with a conservative estimate of 7 million tons of new capacity coming into the market. Therefore, the new production capacity will dominate the whole PTA market in 2020. The mainstream factory's ability to control prices is also getting stronger and stronger. In 2020, PTA will continue to compress processing fees under the influence of large capacity expansion. PTA enterprises will increase profits and losses, and PTA prices will be short or supported. However, the downstream polyester market is expected to add 6 million 750 thousand tons of capacity in 2020, and the demand for PTA will be around 5 million 770 thousand tons. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand will enable PTA to usher in a new round of shuffling in 2020. At the same time, PX2020 added 5 million 680 thousand tons. PX will be oversupplied, and PX prices will also be affected. In the period of oversupply, PTA lacks momentum and will enter a narrow running phase.