Stock Market Outlook: A Shares Will Stand On 4400 Points This Year.

The A share market is still mainly driven by internal factors and logic. On the one hand, the economic fundamentals have continued to exceed expectations since the beginning of the year, and the resilience of the economic rebound has been better. Especially the strong real estate investment has largely alleviated the market's concern about the economic downturn in the two quarter; on the other hand, the policy orientation of the financial market's deleveraging will not change.

In the short term, there is a loose turning point. In the case of replenishment of the real economy, the demand for capital will increase, and the trend of liquidity will be maintained. The valuation expansion of the A share market will be suppressed.

The market is still under the pressure of fundamental improvement and the tightening of marginal liquidity. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain volatility. The key point is to grasp structural opportunities, especially those of high quality stocks that are expected to exceed the expected performance. The leading companies such as chemical, cement, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other high-end industries will benefit from the high-end liquor, which is driven by consumption promotion, and will benefit from the growth of the real estate sales industry, and the leading companies with better matching industries with better growth and matching.

Some worry that capital will flow from A shares to US stocks, which is not necessary, because the trend of A shares is not too big with the US stock exchange and the Fed's policy relationship.

For example, from 2009 to 2014, the three rounds of quantitative easing in the US Federal Reserve showed a bull market for five consecutive years, while A shares fell five years.

From 2014 to 2015, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to shift from the previous quantitative easing to the start of raising interest rates, but A shares took a year's bull market.

It can be said that the trend of A shares is more affected by domestic economic and policy implications, and is not affected by the Fed policy.

Plus, stocks are at a record high and are still hitting new heights.

It has just climbed from the bottom and is still lingering in the bottom area.

The position of the two markets is totally different, so it is not possible to increase the interest rate from the Federal Reserve to determine whether capital will flow from A shares to the US.

At present, the degree of openness of A shares is not very high, so the flow of funds will not be so obvious. It may be a slight depreciation of the RMB trend this year, and there will be no significant depreciation.

On the one hand, over the past year or so, the depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has been relatively large, which has fully reflected the anticipation of the Fed's interest rate hike.

On the other hand, China has $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, which is also a firm support for the exchange rate.

Third, after Trump came to power, he valued American exports and prepared to reduce them.

Deficit.

If the RMB exchange rate depreciates sharply, which is not conducive to Trump's completion of this goal, the excessive strength of the US dollar is also not conducive to promoting US exports.

MSCI will be announced again in mid June this year, whether it will be included in A shares.

Morgan Stanley Fund said that China's regulatory authorities have made great progress in the past few months on the time limit for the suspension of restructuring, which is conducive to increasing the possibility of A shares. Although the share of A shares in the emerging market index is only 1% in the initial stage, it is estimated that 10 years later, the share of Chinese stocks in overseas cities will increase by more than 40%.

A shares enter MSCI assessment soon, Morgan Stanley Fund said, A shares this year will be included in the MSCI emerging market index probability more than 50%, and in the next 10 years, the entire Chinese stock in the MSCI emerging market index will weigh more than 40%.

Morgan Stanley reiterated that the A share was expected to be 4400 this year, and it is expected that in the next 36 months, China's treasury bonds will be eligible for the main bond index, such as Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg or Citigroup WGBI, with a weighting of 3% to 5%.

By then, 250 billion to 300 billion dollars will flow into China's bond market.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.