Is The Structural Bull Market Just Around The Corner?

This year, with the acceleration of new shares, the local market bubble may continue to decline. However, blue chips, blue chip stocks and cyclical stocks are relatively prominent because of their valuation advantages, and the impact is relatively small.

Last year, from the two angles of stock index futures and refinancing, the regulators started to cut down the market capital, and the market valuation level was not too high, and the market structure was very high.

More than last year.

Since the Spring Festival, some parts of Hong Kong stock and A share have shown a bull market, and Shanghai stock index and Shenzhen composite index are in a state of concussion after the festival.

A common concern is how long this kind of market can last. In recent years, the reform policy of local state-owned enterprises has been launched continuously, the pension has been commissioned to invest and operate, the stock index futures are loosening up, and the new regulations for refinancing have been launched. These can enhance the market sentiment, thus maintaining an optimistic view of the spring market and maintaining the judgement of the blue chip dominance in the spring market.

On the disk, compared with the first trading day in February 3rd, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.39% and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.6%.

In February 24th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities had a ratio of 1781 to 1017, and the overall market earning effect was 63%.

Specifically, this week, the stock index advanced, and the Shanghai stock index shrank in the first half of the week. It was once higher to 3264 points, and the resistance at the upper part was larger. The volume of the stock index was smaller than that of the first half. The stock index gradually dropped in the second half of the week, but the adjustment was relatively small. The red market still closed on Friday.

As of February 24th, from the industry point of view, the weekly index of all industries in the Shen Yi class industry rose, and the weekly index of computers, media, communications and other industries rose by more than 3%.

Concept stocks, sub shares, cement stocks, non-ferrous metals and other performance, leading stocks outstanding performance.

In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of main funds in February 24th amounted to -175.22 billion yuan.

The main net capital inflow was -119.16 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 338 million yuan.

Whether from the market or from the analysis report of the securities companies, the market participation market tends to be active in the near future.

Brokerages generally believe that the market opportunities in the near future are relatively large, giving a robust operation to the market.

But is this market sustainable? What kind of market will be presented in 2017? There is some controversy in the market.

This year's A share strategy is likely to be out of the structural bull market.

The logic of his analysis is that in 2017, there were 4 super expectations: demand exceeding expectations, credit exceeding expectations, supply side reform exceeding expectations, and business performance exceeding expectations.

For example, due to the rise in external demand and the continuity of RMB.

Exports have been improving since last June.

Considering the low base of last year, exports will probably return to positive growth this year.

The demand for infrastructure also increased sharply, and local governments had investment impulses after the change.

Equipment investment in manufacturing industry also showed signs of explosion at the end of 2016, early in 2017, indicating that enterprises began large-scale upgrading and upgrading of equipment.

In addition, many cities have exceeded inventory expectations, developers need to replenish inventory, so real estate investment will not be pessimistic.

Since the end of 2015, the effect of the supply side reform pushed forward by the whole country has been the continuous rise of commodities. This year's capacity reform will also expand its scope. There are indications that the propulsion mechanism of the supply side reform is smoother than before.

In February, the National Bureau of statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.9% in January this year, rising by 0.8%.

Ren Zeping said that PPI growth will be expected in February, indicating that the company's profits will continue to maintain a good situation.

"In addition to the fundamental reason, that is, the improvement of corporate profits, there are technical reasons, that is, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the negative impact of money shortage, debt crisis and interest rate increase on A shares did not drive A shares down.

At the same time, the volume of trading and the number of investors in positions have dropped to the level of the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2014. The market is well built, and many blue chips have the value of allocation.

Ren Zeping believes that from last year to the first half of this year, the economy should be in the stage of small cycle recovery, and the small cycle will fall later, but the rate of decline is not deep.

This year, a structural bull market is likely to emerge.

Song Qinghui, a well-known economist, holds different views. According to the reporter, in the light of the recent rise in some sectors of the market, mainly due to the rebound in the cyclical stocks, it is probably too early to say that the market has a structural bull market.

Song Qinghui believes that, first, the 2017 economy may be even less optimistic. The cyclical nature of China's economy has not yet appeared, and the low point of the stock market has not yet officially passed.

Two, China's traditional economic growth momentum is facing difficulties, and the overall recovery trend of the overall profitability of enterprises has not yet been completed, and the overall structural bull market probability is smaller.

"At present, the A share market trend has more upward trend, but the overall situation is not optimistic. Therefore, many investors who have been confident and confident in A shares have chosen to wait and see or even leave the field."

Song Qinghui said.

From the viewpoint of the parties, the current situation of the two sessions has been pushed forward.

Opportunities for nuggets increased.

Insiders pointed out that the two sessions policy catalyst or guide A shares structural market, and economic recovery related cyclical stocks, such as steel, cement, banking, manufacturing and so on will be subject to capital layout.

A number of agencies pointed out that with the A market warming before and after the two sessions, the cyclical sector is expected to wind up.

Guoxin Securities Margin Trading Department believes that there may be two waves of better operational phased market in the past year from the index in the comprehensive market.

Another wave may be in the three quarter, or nineteen.

Relatively speaking, this year's two and fourth quarter need to be observed.

Song Qinghui believes that the A share investment is optimistic about agriculture this year.

There is a significant positive support for the first document, and the agricultural sector is expected to usher in a policy of "red envelopes".

He said that in 2017, the Central Document No. 1 not only focused on agriculture, but also related to the second industry and the third industry, such as "actively promoting the industrialization and large-scale production of traditional staple food", and vigorously developing the rural leisure tourism industry.

In addition, it also involves in finance and investment, such as "encouraging local establishment of risk compensation funds, leveraging financial and social capital to invest more in agriculture and rural areas", and actively guiding agriculture related enterprises to manage market risks with futures and options, and steadily expanding the "insurance + futures" trial.

In the stock market, the A share spring strategy emerges, because there is the help of the central document No.1, and there is support for agriculture related sectors.

2017 is also the year of deepening the reform of the supply side of agriculture.

Song Qinghui suggested that investors should focus on the three major reform themes of grain, water and land.

In the short term, land pfer and corn inventory can be paid attention to. Medium and long term attention will be paid to the high-end agricultural machinery, agricultural informatization and pesticides.

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