March Began Throwing Store New Cotton Sales Pressure

In January, domestic textile enterprises received the tariff quotas issued by the NDRC. In view of the large number of contract signing and shipment of US cotton this year, the quota in China is not only the quota of 894 thousand tons within the tariff, but also the quota outside the tariff.

There were still many big fluctuations in domestic and foreign markets in January, first of all, the US dollar index changed from rise to decline and RMB appreciation from the previous depreciation to RMB appreciation, which was 6.95 against the US dollar from the beginning of January to 6.86 now.

Secondly, when the new US President Trump took office, he issued various commitments before the election, and revitalization of manufacturing, investment in infrastructure, exit from the TPP and the construction of high walls of the United States and Mexico, all of which aroused tension.

Finally, China's real estate policy has played a role, and the real estate market has gradually become calm. The average price of real estate sales has stabilized or slightly reduced.

From the data point of view, China's GDP of 744127 billion yuan in 2016 was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 6.7% over the previous year, of which the fourth quarter increased by 6.8%.

China's CPI in December was 2.1%, 2.2% and 2.3%, while China's PPI in December was 5.5%, 4.6% and 3.3%.

In 2016, China's CPI rose by 2% over the same period last year, and PPI dropped by 1.4% compared to the same period last year.

In December, China's yuan denominated exports increased by 0.6% over the same period last year, and imports increased by 10.8% compared to the same period last year, with a trade surplus of 275 billion 418 million yuan.

In 2016, the yuan denominated exports decreased by 2%, imports increased by 0.6%, the trade surplus was 3 trillion and 350 billion yuan, narrowed by 9.1%.

In terms of domestic cotton supply, in January, due to the approaching of Spring Festival, textile enterprises started the mode of replenishment before the festival. However, as the state began selling cotton reserves in March 2017, most textile enterprises were not prepared to take stock, and they also took a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market trend.

On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton production this year is 500 thousand tons more than that of last year, and this year's Xinjiang cotton production is slow, and it is about 600000 tons less than that of the same period last year. In addition, in December, China imported large quantities of imported cotton, and the quota for the new year was also issued in January.

Looking at downstream demand

The consumption expectation is not bad.

The demand for export of terminal textiles and garments is also due to the depreciation of the renminbi. From the present point of view, the export volume of textiles and clothing is fairly good.

In the international market, due to the new monetary policy in China, India's new cotton market has not increased. Due to the large number of orders from China and Pakistan in December, the supply of cotton in India is rather tight. The price of lint cotton has risen steadily, and the US cotton market has also been affected by the fact that its contract situation is better and the price of cotton in India is rising.

In terms of business inventories, according to the inventory survey of 183 warehouse members in 18 provinces and municipalities in China, the total turnover of the total commodity cotton turnover in China was about 2 million 753 thousand and 800 tons at the end of December, an increase of 230 thousand and 400 tons from the previous month, an increase of 9.13%.

As for the new cotton industry in Xinjiang, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the processing and sales of new flowers in Xinjiang are stagnant. As of January 18th, Xinjiang cotton has processed 3 million 940 thousand and 500 tons and Xinjiang cotton has 3 million 854 thousand and 100 tons of inspection.

Analysis of the February cotton market in the mainland market, on the one hand, because of a large number of new cotton sales this year, as of the end of December, the Xinjiang cotton production in 2016/17 decreased by 600 thousand tons compared with the same period of the previous year, and the output of Xinjiang cotton is about 500 thousand tons higher than that of the previous year.

The supply is about 1 million tons higher than the same period of the previous year.

On the other hand, the sale of cotton reserves will start in March 6th this year, and the storage time will be two months ahead of last year. Many textile enterprises are reluctant to purchase large quantities of new cotton because of the anticipation of the dumping and storage. Most of them will be purchased with the purchase and waiting for the listing of reserve cotton.

To sum up, the quantity of Xinjiang cotton is about 1 million tons more than that of the same period last year. Moreover, the cotton reserves are still two months ahead of schedule. Therefore, the sales pressure of Xinjiang cotton will be gradually reflected this year after the Spring Festival.

The above is the objective factors, from the psychological level analysis, with last year's wave of rise in the forefront of the market, this year, most of the cotton ginning plant has been sold, now the intention to reduce sales is not big, but rather big intention.

Sales pressure after holidays should be mainly focused on traders.

2016 December China

143 thousand and 500 tons, a sharp increase in the ring ratio, a decrease of 23.7% over the same period, of which India cotton is 61 thousand tons and the United States cotton is 46 thousand tons.

In December, as the largest month of cotton imports in China, the import volume was also significantly higher than that of other months, and mainly India cotton and American cotton.

In 2016, China imported 897 thousand tons of cotton and imported 576 thousand tons less than last year. Since 2004, the import volume of cotton has been lower than 1 million tons for the first time, which is much lower than that of previous years.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.