The Bull Market Is Coming Quietly, Hopefully Not So Crazy.

With the decline of the real economy accompanied by the optimization of industrial structure, the proportion of the third industry has exceeded 50%, and the decline of the economic growth rate is an inevitable trend in the two economic structure.

Some people are still missing the golden age of rapid economic growth, studying the so-called "potential economic growth" to demonstrate that one day China's economy will return to the high growth track of around 8%.

It is impossible that economists should study "potential wealth growth" to cope with the rapid growth of China's wealth management market.

A few years later, looking back, the G20 summit in Hangzhou will prove to be the starting point for a bull market, and may even emerge from the "bull and bear bear" stock market cycle.

Like the children with ADHD, China's stock market is impetuous, so long as it can't fall down, it will turn upside down.

Once the wealth effect appears, OTC funds rush into the stock market immediately, and the stock market is once again in a frenzy.

Why did the stock market "fail to go down"? It has been said that nearly 30% of China's stock market value is "a barrel of gold and two barrels of oil", that is, bank shares + PetroChina and Sinopec.

Therefore, "a barrel of gold and two barrels of oil" is the sea god pin of China's stock market. Once it is supported by external funds, it stabilizes.

With the wind rising, then the main board high market value stocks rose randomly.

This phenomenon, investors often jokingly called: "the elephant sets the stage, the monkey plays the opera".

Data show that the Central Huijin Company quietly increased bank shares in the past few months, the cross-border QFII channel is also greater than the outflow of the influx.

"Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong" has shown a net inflow. "Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong" is expected to open this year. The combined configuration will also focus on the main board blue chip.

The conclusion is: the market has gradually narrowed down, and the bottom of the stock market has been completed.

"Elephant" seems to have stood firm. "Monkey" is ready to do so. The Hangzhou summit is just like this.

The starting fuse, which made the uneasy stock market in the shock quickly choose the direction of upward breakthroughs. If the stock index and gem both break through the high point of half a year, the huge "M-1" deposits lying in the bank will flow out in a short time, leaving the sluggish stock market out of a positive line.

Not long ago, I thought it would be difficult for the bear market to end in one or two years.

This is not only an optimistic desire, but also a reasonable expectation.

First of all, it is precisely because the bull market has come back too early that the collapse of last June to January of this year has not yet been forgotten. It is still fresh in the memory of the plunge in the stock market. We still need to have enough time to digest it. Secondly, the trend of China's economic downturn is still unchanged. Some invisible risks are emerging. Third, the optimistic expectations of the Hangzhou summit will not be turned into substantial gains in the short term, and the globalization dividend is unlikely to materialize quickly.

Economic uncertainty and investor insecurity are the shadow of bear market behind the stock market. People can see that the bottom of the stock market has been rising gradually since the second half of the year, but they are unwilling to believe that the bull market is coming.

This complex market sentiment has breeds the trend of "falling down but not going down", which may lead to a bull market that people have been looking forward to for many years.

In the stock market, the wealth effect of the slow cow is much higher than that of the mad cow, so this is China.

Praying: I hope the bull market is not going crazy anymore!

The prelude to the securitization of national economy has been opened. The acceleration of wealth growth will keep pace with the slowdown of economic growth. The most important reason is the securitization of family wealth.

The current securitization rate of household wealth in China is about 10%, and will gradually increase to 50% in the future. Therefore, stock market investment will replace the property market and become the dream market of most families.

Unlike real estate investment, stock market investment has higher risks, more choices and stronger liquidity.

To put aside all kinds of theories, we should remember some old saying: bull market is long line, bear market is band, and occasionally short line.

It is suggested that in the future position control, we should reduce the number of empty positions properly, increase the proportion of long term positions, and appropriately extend the holding time of band positions, but still insist on diversifying investment and carefully using leverage.