Deng Haiqing: The Reform Of State-Owned Enterprises Is Imminent. Industrial Manufacturing Is Heading For 2025

In April, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises dropped somewhat, but it did not change the upward trend.

In addition, the data also show that the reform of state-owned enterprises is imminent.

In the 1-4 month, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises accumulated -1.2% year-on-year, the lowest value since the data.

It is noteworthy that since August 2014, finished goods inventories have been sliding down year-on-year, and there has been no economic rebound caused by the so-called "inventory cycle". Enterprises are still waiting for the future release after replenishment of stocks, which is one of the driving forces for the future economic recovery.

It has always been considered that the characteristic of this round of "cycle return" is that the long-period economy since 2011 has bottomed out, and the future economy will show a L trend.

The main driving force of this economic stabilization is real estate investment and infrastructure investment, which is driven by "wide fiscal" and "wide credit" rather than "wide currency", and loosening monetary policy will only lead to assets.

Frequent.

Data show that industry in April

An increase of 4.2% compared with the previous year, the previous value of 11.1%; 1-4 month profit grew 6.5%, the former value 7.4%; 1-4 months, the main business income increased 2.3%, the previous value 2.4%.

Compared with March, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased significantly, mainly because the growth rate was too high in March.

In April, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was 4.2%, which is actually very high.

In 2015, the highest value was only 2.6% in a single month, and only 2 months in 12 months were positive growth.

In addition, the April 2015 base was higher than last March, which is also one of the reasons for the decline in April 2016.

The profit of industrial enterprises is in line with other data such as industrial added value. The data in March were too high, and in April, it fell down rationally, and the upward trend did not change.

From the structural point of view, the profit of state-owned enterprises fell sharply last year to -7.8%, while the profit of collective enterprises, joint-stock enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises and private enterprises increased by 0.4%, 7.4%, 7.3% and 8.4% respectively.

At present, the biggest problem of China's economy is the low efficiency of state-owned enterprises, and the reform of state-owned enterprises is imminent.

According to the industry, only 8 industry profits decreased in the 1-4 months compared with the 10 industries in 1-3 months, 2.

The top five industries with the main drop in profits are oil and natural gas extraction, coal mining, tobacco products, ferrous metal mining, and non-ferrous metal mining and mining. Besides tobacco, they are upstream industries, while most of the middle and lower reaches manufacturing profits are growing year after year.

After the stabilization of the economy, the necessity and urgency of the supply side reform are enhanced.

Economic stabilization is a necessary condition for the supply side reform, because when the economy falls, enterprises enter the "risk avoidance mode". Enterprises want to reduce production and investment. Only after the economy stabilizes, enterprises will hope to expand profits through pformation.

Deng Haiqing believes that China's L economy is by no means a bottomless slide. Bigoted and empty China's economy will make a big mistake.