When Will The "Second Spring" Of Cotton Market Come?

At present, the national grain reserves have reached the peak of history, not only the government's financial pressure is huge, but also seriously affected the continuous healthy operation of the whole grain industry chain.

How to effectively stock up has become a problem before the government. Corn problem is the most prominent.

Against this background, can cotton curb the trend of decreasing area and usher in the "second spring"?

The steady situation is changing.

At this stage, the cotton market is still in the weak position, and the national reserve remains unclear for a day, and the cotton market is still hard to rise.

On the one hand, because of the reduction of cotton planting area year by year, the supply of new year has been declining year by year, the stock has been opened, the pressure has obviously reduced, the market has picked up the breathing machine, and on the other hand, the supply is sufficient due to the continuous storage and storage of stocks, and is highly not threatened by the threat of national storage.

Looking at the historical market, we can find that the cotton market before 2008 is stable, basically running in the range of 10000-15000 yuan / ton, and the amazing performance of the cotton market is in the period of 2008-2014.

For 2008-2010 years, it was once brilliant and straight up to the skies, and in 2011-2015 years, it was all over.

There are fundamental reasons behind the ups and downs of the market.

In the 2008-2010 year of the bull market, the big bull market was a combination of the right time, the right place and the three.

Over the past few years, China has continued to collect and store the proceeds to protect farmers' income, increasing demand at that time, and once supporting the market. However, the amount of stock in the State Treasury has become the main supply pressure after the cancellation of the purchase and storage policy. After 2014 years of the national reserve policy was abolished, the market quickly fell to the target price.

In terms of performance in 2015, the new year's planting area is normalized and reduced to support the market. However, the demand for terminal is still in the doldrums. Under the threat of national cotton storage, the channel of Zheng cotton's 1500 yuan yuan / ton width is running downwards, with a high point of 13640 yuan / ton and a low point of 11705 yuan / ton.

2015, the turnover of cotton and the decline of both positions in the year of the cotton market are not enough.

The reduction of planting area was supported by exports, while the performance of the US cotton under the pressure of no throwing and storage was slightly better than that of Zheng cotton. At the beginning of the year, it rose from the cost of 58 cents per cent to the highest point, and then dropped at 68 cents. At the end of the year, it was 63 points.

Recently, Zheng cotton main contract continued downward 1605, the average system also diverged.

Textile consumption in the lower reaches is sluggish, and it is expected that the latter will continue to decline.

Under the constraints of the poor economic environment, the domestic demand market downturn, the fierce competition in the export market, the import of yarn and cloth to occupy the domestic share and the substitution of chemical fiber, China's textile industry is facing a serious situation, and cotton consumption has obviously shrunk.

The terminal demand of cotton downstream is very low, which restricts the textile enterprises to take the goods, thereby dragging their enthusiasm for stocking.

Moreover, the shortage of funds in textile enterprises is relatively common, which restricts the procurement progress, and the supply of cotton market is still loose.

Before the substantial improvement in downstream consumption, cotton prices rose powerless.

First,

Although retail sales have improved, the effect is not obvious.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in October 2015, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China increased by 1.9% over the same period last year, reversing the 3 consecutive month of decline since June. The growth rate is 4.4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2014, which is 6.7 percentage points higher than that in September.

At the same time, retail sales data show that in October, the volume of retail sales of all kinds of clothing in 100 major large retail enterprises increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in September.

According to the published data, domestic clothing sales improved in October, but it was not obvious. The domestic sales of China's textile and clothing remained depressed.

Second, textile and clothing exports continued to grow negative year-on-year.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, in November 2015, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $21 billion 982 million, a decrease of 7.07% compared to the same period, down 9.71% from the same period last year.

As of November 2015, there was a negative growth in export of textiles and clothing in 10 months, indicating that the downstream consumption demand of cotton is not optimistic.

Third, the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises as a whole is poor.

China cotton information network statistics show that in November 2015, the textile enterprises in the warehouse stock of 419 thousand tons, an increase of 29 thousand and 600 tons compared to October, textile enterprises can control cotton inventory of 421 thousand and 900 tons, compared with October to reduce 15 thousand tons.

In that month, cotton spot market resources were relatively abundant. Most enterprises were worried about the limited number of high-grade cotton, and later procurement was not easy to group, but centralized replenishment.

However, due to the lack of confidence in the market and the tight funds, many enterprises maintain a relatively low disposable inventory and weaken their purchasing intention later.

The US Department of agriculture's December supply and demand report predicts that the total cotton output in 2015/2016 will be 22 million 580 thousand tons, 417 thousand tons lower than the November forecast value, the global consumption of 24 million 252 thousand tons, the reduction of 44 thousand tons, the global import and export volume of 7 million 700 thousand tons, the increase of 220 thousand tons, the end of the global period 22 million 729 thousand tons, the reduction of 369 thousand tons, and the global inventory consumption ratio of 93.72%, down by 7.76 percentage points year-on-year.

It's still unknown.

Corn "

The fate of structural adjustment seems to be closely related to cotton.

In the situation of high cotton reserve and low price, Xinjiang, as a cotton planting area, is constantly reducing its planting area under the actual benefit problem. The area of reduction is replaced by corn.

According to the Department of agriculture of the autonomous region, in 2015, the actual cotton planting area in Xinjiang was reduced by 4 million 790 thousand mu. The area of cotton reduction in the whole region was mainly planted with wheat, corn, forage, melon and sugar beet, of which 940 thousand mu were replanted, accounting for 19.6% of the actual reduction area, and 1 million 110 thousand mu of maize converted to 23.2% of the actual reduction area, accounting for 42.8% of the total.

Of course, the mainland is the same. Because the growth characteristics of drought tolerance and photothermal growth of maize are similar to those of cotton, the cotton disappeared in the past two years is replaced by a large number of food crops. Corn is the most obvious. The most important reason for this change is the decrease of cotton planting efficiency and the lack of rural labor force.

At present, the price of corn's temporary storage and storage has declined, and the income of farmers has further declined.

According to the news, in the 2013-2014 years, the price of temporary storage and purchase of corn in Northeast China was 2220-2260 yuan / ton, and the price was adjusted to 2000 yuan / ton in 2015.

In December 11th, the national cotton market monitoring system carried out an investigation of cotton planting intentions in 2016. The results showed that the cotton planting area in the mainland and Xinjiang still declined, but the decrease was less than that of last year.

In 2016, the central government's reduction of corn production capacity is the general trend. However, under the condition of excessive inventory of most agricultural products (including about 10000000 tons of cotton stocks), it is still very difficult for cotton to seize this opportunity to achieve "second spring".

Some farmers said that the input and output of corn were basically flat and the income was limited.

Although the price of cotton market is low and the income of cotton farmers is limited, under the target price subsidy policy, cotton farmers' production activities have been guaranteed.

Especially in Xinjiang, the average subsidy per mu is 400-500 yuan / mu, much higher than grain subsidy.

However, the mainland subsidy is relatively limited, most of which remain at 100-200 yuan / mu.

Because of the high cost of planting cotton, especially the need to invest a lot of manpower, subsidies can be a drop in the bucket.