International PX Supply Exceeds Expected Easing

Early international

The impact of centralized overhaul, PX prices rose to the highest level of 1002.5 U.S. dollars / ton, and after this rally, PX prices turned downward, has now dropped to 905.5 U.S. dollars / ton.

The author believes that the reason is more relaxed supply of PX.

From the ACP price reached by PX in May, we can see that there are still more sources of PX.

However, from the end of May to the beginning of June,

A total of 2 million 480 thousand tons of PX devices are expected to restart.

Among them, China Fu Jia Dahua 1 million 400 thousand tons PX device will restart, will increase 120 thousand tons of PX output per month.

The 900 thousand ton unit of line 2 of South Korea's Shuanglong line was restarted at the end of May.

The 1 million 180 thousand ton plant is planned to restart around June 7th, and South Korea will increase its PX output by 170 thousand tons per month.

From this we can speculate that the PX profit will be further compressed, and the probability that PX and naphtha oil price will be reduced to below US $300 / ton will be relatively large. Then PTA cost support will continue to weaken.

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Recently, the weather in Hebei is good and the temperature is high, which is beneficial to cotton seedling growth.

Many cotton farmers in Cangzhou have reflected that the growth of cotton is generally better than last year because of the good foundation of planting and management measures.

Up to now, cotton seedlings in Cangzhou are generally 7-8 centimeters and 5-6 pieces of true leaf.

Recently, cotton farmers have not seen pests and diseases in cotton fields.

Cotton growers Lao Zhao said happily: the yield per unit area is 500 Jin / mu.

According to the weather forecast, the weather in Hebei is dry and sunny for a long time this year. Cotton is a drought resistant crop and suitable for growth.

Contrary to the good growth of cotton seedlings, cotton prices have dropped in recent years.

In May 27th, the spot price of the 3128 class real estate in Cangzhou area was 13000 yuan / ton (delivery, including tax), 4128 level 12400 yuan / ton, down 100-150 yuan / ton compared with 22 days.

Market analysis, three major reasons for the spot price drop.

1, the futures market is weak, which is not conducive to the spot market of lint.

Because of the fund's profit and the strong US dollar, the speculators sold the July contract, leading to a sharp decline in cotton last week.

This week, Zheng cotton also continued to follow suit. As of Wednesday (27), Zheng cotton 1509 contract closed at 13060 yuan / ton, and the futures market was weak, which was not conducive to the spot market of lint.

2, state reserve stocks remain high and demand is weak, which still inhibits their market share.

There are more than 10 million tons of national cotton storage, and huge cotton stocks have forced enterprises to worry. The news of recent dumping has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of textile enterprises, which is mainly followed by buying and buying, and the market is light.