Wu Guoping: Up To Date Relay Mode Basically Completed

The recent fall has left many investors panicked, or even right.

There has been suspicion, and we firmly believe that this is only the bull market midway range concussion, and yesterday from the amount of energy, amplitude, gap and other aspects of prompting everyone to adjust to the middle and later stage, we should always pay attention to the emergence of major turnaround.

Today, the stock index returns as scheduled, and the market is still very generous.

Well, today's

Does this mean that the new wave has started quietly? According to historical rules, this possibility exists, because the 3100 to 3400 interval oscillation has already satisfied the basic conditions of relay mode.

Of course, from the point of view of details, today's rise has not been clearly released, and it has left a small upward gap gap. Therefore, we will not rule out the short term grinding, but anyway, this wave of rising relay has basically completed, and the new wave is likely to start at any time.

The index rose 2.79% today and continued to grow in depth. The gem index is a record high, rising 3.19%, and is much stronger than we expected.

So small cap stocks are more active recently.

It is worth noting that the gem index weekly MACD deviated from the top 60 minutes trend also appeared MACD top deviation, so it is not radical.

From the risk to earnings ratio, small and medium-sized boards are more worthy of attention.

The trend of the stock index in the next few days is very critical. If we continue to rise, release the amount of energy and help the mainstream sector, we can confirm the completion of the relay relay and the start of the new wave.

If it continues to toss, it will be more than just a few trading days.

We should see the general direction in stock market.

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CSC's macro report pointed out that in 2014, with the establishment of RMB devaluation and two-way fluctuation expectations, the deficit of capital and financial items, especially financial items, began to manifest.

Deficits in capital and financial projects, together with current account surpluses, have led to slower growth in foreign exchange reserves, and even decline in individual quarters.

The new foreign exchange reserves continue to shrink, so the monetary policy framework is also undergoing pformation, providing the basic currency through new channels.

Overall, economic pformation brings about a series of changes in exchange rate, foreign exchange and monetary policy.

In fact, from the operation of the central bank this year, it is more likely to release liquidity by sequel MLF (medium term lending facility) and reverse repurchase.

In February 3rd, the central bank in the open market will carry on 35 billion yuan 7 days reverse repurchase operation, 55 billion yuan 28 days reverse repurchase operation, a total of 90 billion liquidity to the market.

The "big move" such as cutting interest rates and lowering standards has not appeared.

Wen Bin said that taking into account the trend of foreign exchange reduction, from the perspective of the supplement of the basic currency, the reduction is necessary.

However, since the capital market soared after the end of last year, the central bank has been cautious about the overall easing policy.

In particular, if China joins the "currency war", it will further increase the depreciation expectation of RMB.

"However, whether the reverse repo, MLF or even after the cycle of innovation tool MLF has been extended to more than a year, the problem of the basic money supply gap can not be solved."

He said.

Yang Chi, head of the strategic Office of Huaxia Bank Development Research Department, told the economic reference daily that under the background of capital outflow and RMB devaluation, the growth rate of central bank foreign exchange growth slowed down or even decreased, which provided a good condition for the central bank to improve the initiative of monetary policy.

The operation of the central bank in the debt side will be reduced and the intervention in the foreign exchange market will be phased out.

The operation at the asset side will increase, more directional control tools will be launched, and liquidity will be adjusted more actively.