The Stock Market Can Not Rely Entirely On "Hanging Bottles".

It's digesting the periphery.

After the unfavourable domestic economic data and the delayed opening of the Shanghai port, the rebound of the stock market is a return to the upward trend, and the foundation of the A - share slow cow has not changed again.

Looking back at the A share market in October, it is a twists and turns.

After two consecutive days of success, the main index of the peripheral market has been greatly affected by the sharp fluctuations of the major stock indexes and the poor economic data of some parts of the country. The market has been on a downward spiral and has been adjusted for 12 consecutive trading days, especially the delay in the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges. This has led to a five overhang in the stock market, and hit a new low of 2279 points in 9 weeks last Monday.

However, from the last 4 trading days that began last Tuesday, the volume of the market has been rising continuously, and has reached a new high level. For the first time in more than 5 years, it has successfully realized the "six Lian Yang" of the monthly line.

"10 the market at the end of the month can be described by the way of peak and back.

Li Zhilin, director of the Institute of enterprise and economic development of East China Normal University, looked at the fact that most investors still believed that the month of October would be closed, and that it would open a downward trend.

But the market has been up 4 days since last Tuesday, recovering not only 2391 points but also 250 billion yuan, the largest volume in 5 years, and closed at 2420 points, 5.12% weeks Changyang and 2.7% monthly line.

At the end of 10, the volume of A shares rose, and the market generally believed that it was a repair for the previous downturn, and it was also laying a solid foundation for operation and preparing conditions for new hot spots.

"This is a rebound in the stock market after adjustment."

Dong Dengxin, director of the financial and Securities Research Institute of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told reporters that the market began to rise below the 2000 point, reaching nearly 2400 points in early October, and basically did not adjust all the way. The cumulative increase was about 20%.

Since October, there has been a drop of about 100 points. From a technical point of view, there is a demand for adjustment.

As a result, the 10 consecutive rise in the end of the month is a return to the upward trend and reaffirmed the beginning of the long cycle of slow cattle.

Citic securities issued a research report that the market at the end of October, the reason for the surge, mainly with the central bank is not the traditional meaning of SLF (standing loan convenience), but MLF (medium term lending convenience), directional cut rate instructions are very clear, forming a risk free interest rate continued downward market expectations, coupled with the new capital back flow, from the capital surface to promote short-term investment demand increase.

In fact, the stock market continues to go up and matches the new normal economy. The driving force of favorable policies is also one of the important reasons.

Dong Dengxin believes that many dividends still need to be released and implemented.

The programmatic document issued by law in the fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee has a positive effect on China's stock market.

The rule of law is to require the stock market to be administrative. The government's return to power is still in the rule of law. It will become a booster for the reform of the stock market, especially for the reform of the registered capital system.

The two step is to turn back into a new normal.

However, the external environment of A shares has advantages and disadvantages.

Financial analyst commentator Shui Po believes that for China, QE's exit has more advantages than disadvantages. First, China's market and the way of pointing fingers against bear for 5 years do not have a strong linkage itself. Secondly, the decline of commodity futures prices means that inflation risk diminish, which means that the competitiveness of Chinese goods in the international market is enhanced.

"The 2400 point height has been conquered, even if it is adjusted, it should be in a higher position, such as 2500 points."

For the future trend, Dong Dengxin's view is more optimistic, the bull market inertia will enhance the confidence of the market, and promote the stock index to continue upward.

Especially in the current real estate bubble, the industry to excess capacity, some surplus capital may enter the stock market, through compatible mergers and acquisitions to activate market sentiment.

In addition, foreign capital will also seek a market with huge investment potential like China.

But the rise of the stock market will not be smooth sailing.

Dong Dengxin believes that although the upward trend of A shares has been established, the future rise will not be as swift as before, nor will it be as smooth as expected by the market. Therefore, the two step one turn back and the three step one turn back will become the new normal of the stock market. "For investors, there are two options for the current stage."

Dong Dengxin said that if it is to make long-term investments, it is a fairly good time at present. A shares still have many value depressions to look for, especially the valuation of large blue chips is still low, and they can be held for a long time after they are built.

Banking stocks, for example, still have the lowest valuation globally.

If it is short fried, in the long cycle of the slow bull market, as long as we step on the market hot shift and plate rotation rhythm, the opportunity is also very good.

But regardless of which investment to choose, investors must be patient, have new perspectives and investment ideas, and have a new judgement on the market itself, so as to benefit more.