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Foreign Exchange Accounted For 8 Month Low, Net Inflow Of Cross Border Funds Decreased

2014/5/16 19:57:00 29

Foreign Exchange Cross-Border Capital Net Inflow

data released by the central bank on the 15 day showed that foreign exchange accounted for 116 billion 900 million yuan in April, down 38% from March. According to the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter, this is the lowest level in 8 months. The reason for this is that since the expansion of the renminbi, the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken and the expectation of the depreciation is strengthened. This will lead to a stronger willingness of the enterprises and residents to remit foreign exchange, and a weaker willingness to settle foreign exchange. 
 generally speaking, import and export have great influence on foreign exchange. In April, China's trade surplus was as high as 18 billion 500 million US dollars, a substantial increase compared with the March surplus of US $7 billion 700 million, while the foreign exchange occupation was obviously callback. 
 analysts pointed out that the yuan has continued to depreciate against the US dollar this year. Especially since March 17th, the floating rate of RMB against the US dollar in the spot market has expanded to 2%, which has increased the expectation of RMB depreciation in a short time. Under such circumstances, enterprises and residents prefer to hold remittance rather than exchange money with banks. 
This trend is also confirmed by credit data released P days ago. In April, foreign exchange loans increased by only US $3 billion, a sharp decline of 86% compared with March, while foreign exchange deposits increased by US $21 billion 800 million, an increase of 51% over March. 
 Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the foreign exchange bureau, said that there are positive changes in cross border capital flows in the case of two-way fluctuations of RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a >. At the same time, the motives for long-term purchase of foreign exchange are also increasing, and the intention of long-term settlement is weakening. 
 from macroscopic point of view, these changes are conducive to < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > supply and demand balance and improve macroeconomic regulation and control. From the micro perspective, it also helps enterprises to reduce currency mismatches and better cope with the impact of capital flows. 
 for the next stage, the bank Jin Research Center predicts that the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB" /a "will gradually stabilize, which will help stabilize market expectations. The US Federal Reserve's exit from QE does not seem to be as fast as before. In addition, the Chinese economy stabilizes under the" micro stimulus ", and the trade surplus and FDI are expected to stabilize. It is estimated that foreign exchange will remain stable overall growth. 
 Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, pointed out that at present, there is no need for monetary policy to relax in view of steady growth. In the future benchmark situation, the economic growth rate is slightly lower than the government's goal, the policy relaxation is limited to fine-tuning, and the fiscal policy is mainly relaxed, and the probability of comprehensive reduction in the short term is still small. 
 Shen Jianguang, managing director and chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia company, believes that it is necessary to reduce accuracy, and it is imperative that the sooner the better. This is not only a positive measure to deal with many contradictions in the short term, such as the economic downturn and financing difficulties, financing and so on, but also the inherent requirement of the future price type monetary policy tools.