Academy Of Social Sciences: Export Trade Growth Is Underestimated In 2014

< p > A Research Report of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the true scale of China's exports has been interfered by two factors, namely, re export of imports and false trade.

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< p > research shows that the export scale of China has been obviously exaggerated in the past 2012-2013 years, thus making the export trade growth of the corresponding period underestimated this year.

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< p > according to the report, the export scale of China in the past 2012-2013 years is particularly disturbed by the two factors mentioned above. The real export growth rate in the current period is about 4%, far below the 7.9% growth level announced during the same period.

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< p > for example, in 2013, the scale of export re import reached US $157 billion 300 million, accounting for 7.1% of China's total exports over the same period.

This part of the goods is not sold to other countries, and is not a true export. It should be deducted.

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< p > from the estimation results, the scale of export re import has expanded over the past 20 years, and the growth rate is higher than that of total exports in most years.

The revised export import in 2012 was US $98 billion 600 million, while in 2013 it increased to US $108 billion 900 million, with a growth rate of 10.4%, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

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Less than P, it is calculated that exports in the past two years were 19515 billion and 21018 US dollars respectively, with a growth rate of 7.5% and 7.7% respectively.

Although the export growth rate of the less adjusted ones has declined, the growth trend of total exports before and after adjustment has not changed.

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< p > the report also estimates the scale of China's export promotion in the 2012 and 2013 years, namely the so-called false a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > export scale < /a >, about 163 billion 900 million US dollars and 244 billion 600 million US dollars.

The export scale after deducting this part is only 18863 billion US dollars and 19660 billion US dollars, up 4% and 4.2% compared with the same period last year, which is obviously lower than the 7.9% and 7.8% growth level before the adjustment.

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< p > with the expansion of China's export and "a href=" "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > processing trade < /a >, the scale of export re import has increased year by year.

In addition, after the exchange rate reform in 2005, export enterprises introduced capital to China for arbitrage through the way of high reporting and export, and export false reports gradually changed from low to high. Especially in the past 2012-2013 years, a lot of hot money poured into China through high export.

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< p > by the joint influence of the two factors, China's "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "export > /a" has been increasing more and more. In 2012, it was 262 billion 400 million US dollars and increased to 353 billion 500 million US dollars in 2013, which is equivalent to 16% of the official export scale.

Therefore, after deducting the imaginary increase, China's real exports increased by 3.3% and 3.9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, which was significantly lower than the original 7.9% and 7.8% growth rates.

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In 2013 P, China exported 2 trillion and 200 billion US dollars, and the total value of imports and exports reached US $4 trillion and 160 billion. For the first time, it exceeded the United States in the world's first trade in goods.

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< p > China Customs previously announced that exports declined by 3.4% in the first quarter, imports increased by 1.6% and trade surplus narrowed to 59.7% to 16 billion 740 million dollars.

Analysts say exports in the two quarter of this year are better than in the first quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade in May will be positive and will enter a moderate growth period in the future.

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