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Expert Commentary: From The First Trading Power To The Trade Power Road?

2014/2/21 13:03:00 14

according to customs statistics, the total import and export volume of goods in China was 25 trillion and 800 billion yuan (4 trillion and 160 billion US dollars) in 2013, an increase of 7.6% over the previous year. The total import and export volume exceeded US $4 trillion, which means that in 2013, China's foreign trade scale exceeded the United States for the first time, ranking the first largest trading country in the world from the second place in 2012. 
 foreign trade structure optimization, establishment of great power status 
In 2013 P, China's macroeconomic operation continued to stabilize, and created favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade. In addition, with the promotion of import and export policies such as adjusting structure, promoting reform and accelerating the spanformation and upgrading of foreign trade, foreign trade growth showed a low level of stabilization. At the same time, the quality and benefit of China's foreign trade have been greatly improved, especially in the diversification of trade partners, regional coordinated development, foreign trade bodies and commodity structure and endogenous power, which have made good progress. 
The status of 1. < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > trade power < /a > is established in shorter time .
According to customs statistics, in 1978, the total import and export volume of goods in China was only 20 billion 600 million dollars, ranking twenty-ninth in the world, breaking through 100 billion dollars in 1988, breaking through 200 billion US dollars in 1994, breaking through 300 billion US dollars in 1997, and breaking through the 1 trillion US dollar mark in 2004. In 2012, the total import and export volume of goods has reached 38671 billion US dollars, increasing by 186 times compared with that of 2004, increasing by 16.6% per year, ranking second only to the United States, ranking second in the world. The total export volume of goods is about $1 billion, increasing by 16.6% times, with an average annual growth rate of twenty-ninth. In 2012, China's total exports of goods and imports accounted for 11.2% and 9.8% of the world's total respectively. 
In 2013, China's total import and export volume was 25 trillion and 800 billion yuan (equivalent to US $4 trillion and 160 billion), an increase of 7.6% over the previous year. The total export volume was 13 trillion and 740 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period, and the total import value was 12 trillion and 110 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year. The total import and export volume exceeded US $4 trillion, which means that in 2013, China's foreign trade may exceed the US for the first time, ranking the world's largest trading nation from second in 2012. 
 strong > 2. the degree of dependence on foreign trade has further dropped, and the economic benefits of foreign trade are also improving. 
 data show that in the first 3 quarters of 2013, China's foreign trade dependency ratio was 49.3%, a further 0.9 percentage points lower than the first half of last year. This indicates that China's economic development depends on external demand is weakening, and its ability to develop foreign trade has been enhanced. The mode of economic development is changing from external demand to domestic demand. 
At the same time, the economic benefits of China's foreign trade are also improving. P According to statistics, China's export prices fell by 0.7% in 2013, while the import prices fell by 1.8% in the same period, which means that the same amount of products exported can be exchanged for 1% of imports. 
 3. the main export markets are generally improving, and the trend of diversification of trade partners is obviously less than /strong > /p >
P, the United States, Europe and Japan are the main traditional import and export markets in China before the financial crisis. After the crisis, due to the differentiation of economic growth in the world's major economies, China's trade in the United States, Europe, Japan and other traditional markets declined, and trade in emerging economies grew faster. Since the beginning of 2013, new changes have taken place in the world economic pattern, the US economic growth has improved, European sovereign debt has eased somewhat, and Japan has been relieved from the downturn under the stimulus of Andouble economics, and some emerging economies still maintain relatively high growth rates. The traditional market share of Europe and the United States has declined, and emerging markets such as ASEAN have become new growth points. 
 2013, the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, China, Hongkong and Japan are my top five trading partners. Among them, my bilateral trade volume with the EU and the US was 559 billion 100 million and 521 billion US dollars respectively, up 2.1% and 7.5% respectively over the previous year; the bilateral trade volume to Japan decreased by 5.1%, while the European Union and Japan accounted for 33.5% of our foreign trade, down by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. Over the same period, China's bilateral trade volume with emerging markets such as ASEAN, South Africa and five Central Asian countries was 443 billion 610 million, 65 billion 150 million and 50 billion 280 million US dollars, representing an increase of 10.9%, 8.6% and 9.4% respectively. Moreover, the bilateral trade volume between the mainland and China's Hongkong was 401 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.5%. 
 > strong > 4., the structure of export commodities continues to be optimized 
From P exports, the product structure continued to optimize, and the export of electromechanical products and labor-intensive products increased steadily, and the imports of consumer goods and some resource products increased rapidly. In 2013, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 1 trillion and 300 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year, accounting for 57.3% of the total export volume, and maintained the status of the first category of export commodities for 19 consecutive years. With the enhancement of technological upgrading and innovation ability, the import substitution ability of capital intensive products represented by mechanical and electrical products has been enhanced in China. The added value of some products has increased, and the proportion of high-tech and electromechanical products exports has been further improved. In 2013, a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile > /a > products, a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing > _blank > luggage, "no", "shoes", "shoes", "shoes", "shoes", "toys", "furniture", "plastic products" and other 7 categories of labor-intensive products exported 461 billion 840 million US dollars, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year, accounting for 20.9% of total exports. 
 5. imports of resources and energy products and consumer goods have increased. 
In recent years, in order to promote the balance of export trade, the state has vigorously implemented the expanded import strategy, reducing import tariffs and encouraging imports to resources and energy products, high-end equipment manufacturing products, agricultural means of production, consumer goods and public service products, and so on. P In 2013, the price of international bulk products was in a downward trend, which is conducive to the importation of China's resource-based products, and the import of important energy and resource products has increased steadily. Among them, 8.2 million tons of imported iron ore, an increase of 10.2% over the previous year, an import of crude oil of 2.8 million tons, an increase of 4%, and an import coal of 3.3 million tons, an increase of 13.4%. Meanwhile, the import of electromechanical products and high-tech products increased by 7.3% and 10.1% respectively over the same period. From the point of view of imports of consumer goods, in 2013, China's imports of consumer goods amounted to 232 billion 290 million US dollars, an increase of 24.6%, of which 1 million 194 thousand were imported cars and chassis, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year, and the import volume of automobiles increased by 2.7%. 
 6., the mode of trade structure continues to improve, and the ability of independent development is continuously enhanced. 
 2013, the structure of trade pattern continued to improve, and China's general trade import and export of long industrial chain and high value-added rate increased by 9.3%, representing an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, accounting for 52.8% of China's total import and export volume during the same period, and 0.8 percentage points higher. The import and export trade of processing trade increased by 1%, accounting for 32.6%, with a decrease of 2.2 percentage points. Over the same period, the import and export goods of special supervision areas in China amounted to 495 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 20.2%, accounting for 11.9%. The increasing proportion of general trade and the accelerated spanformation of processing trade indicate that China's trade structure has been significantly improved in recent years under the combined effects of financial crisis, international environment, domestic active spanformation and enterprises' emphasis on innovation. Processing trade is extending from the low value-added links dominated by pre processing equipment to the high-end links of R & D, design and brand building in the global value chain allocation, and gradually realizes the spanformation from the entrust processing process to the proprietary processing mode, which is conducive to easing the export pressure brought by the rising cost. 
 7. the proportion of private enterprises increased, and the main structure tended to be reasonable 
In recent years, China has gradually changed the situation that foreign capital enterprises occupy an absolutely dominant position in foreign trade. The main body of the market has become increasingly active, and the proportion of private enterprises has increased, and the dependence on foreign-funded enterprises has been reduced. P In 2013, the import and export of private enterprises reached 1 trillion and 400 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.6% over the previous year, which is faster than the same period. China's foreign trade overall growth rate is 13 percentage points, accounting for 33.3% of the total import and export volume, up 3.6 percentage points, and the contribution to the growth of import and export value is more than 80%. Over the same period, foreign investment enterprises imported and exported 1 trillion and 900 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.3%, accounting for 46.1%, down 2.9 percentage points. In addition, the import and export volume of state-owned enterprises decreased by 0.6%, accounting for 18%, or 1.5 percentage points, to 748 billion US dollars. 
 8. the regional trade structure tends to be coordinated 
 2013, the import and export of the eastern region increased steadily, and the exports from the central and western regions were active. The proportion of foreign trade in 7 provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Jiangsu has declined, and trade in the central and western regions has been active. In 2013, 7 provinces and municipalities such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian had total import and export value of US $3 trillion and 300 billion, accounting for 79% of the total import and export volume of the whole country, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous year. In the central and western regions, Chongqing, Henan, Anhui, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Guizhou and other 7 provinces and cities have increased their foreign trade growth by more than 15%, accounting for 5.7% of total imports and exports, 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous year. 
 trade scale is the first in the world, improving quality and increasing efficiency is more important than /p >
 as we all know, China has become the second largest economy in the world. It is a great manufacturing country, but it is not a manufacturing power. More than 200 kinds of products are the largest in the world. To realize the dream of trade power is an important measure for China to spanform its foreign trade development mode, and it is also an effort to create an upgraded version of the economy. It is very important to speed up the establishment of a trade power, strive to improve the quality of foreign trade growth and enhance the efficiency of foreign trade enterprises. {page_break} 
 1. improving quality and increasing efficiency is one of the important measures to spanform the development mode of foreign trade /p >
For more than a year, China's foreign trade development relies more on "winning by quantity" than by "winning by quality". Among them, energy resources and consumer goods are the overwhelming majority of products in export, mainly in low and medium grade products, low in science and technology, low in added value, lack of independent innovation capability, and lack of well-known brands. P China's enterprises are in the low end of the global industrial chain for a long time, and 90% of export goods are OEM products with a very low profit margin. Because of the low grade, in the past few years, 700 million pieces of cloth shoes exported to China can be exchanged for an Airbus aircraft; without a brand, a Bobbi doll will sell for about 10 dollars in the US market, and Chinese enterprises earn only 35 cents; without patents and core technology, in 2011, 880 million of our mobile phone exports, with a profit of only 1%. 
 world quality experts point out that twenty-first Century is a century of quality and quality is a powerful weapon for the peaceful possession of the market. The eighteen major proposals of the party are to foster a new competitive advantage in the field of technology, brand, quality and service. Under the background of the global economic downturn, China can improve the stability and reliability of export commodities and cultivate products and enterprises with independent intellectual property rights, high added value and well-known brands, so as to promote the spanformation of foreign trade growth from quantity to quality and efficiency. 
 2. to create an upgraded version of the economy, we need to speed up the quality and efficiency of foreign trade /p >
 product quality upgrading is an effective way to create an upgraded version of the economy. Product quality is to help enterprises achieve benefits through brand, durability, adaptability, grade and so on. This is also a concrete embodiment of the adjustment of industrial structure and the spanformation of economic development mode. For example, adjustment and optimization of economic demand structure, industrial structure, factor input structure, foreign trade export structure, and enterprise organization structure are all achieved through upgrading product design level, performance and grade. The improvement of product quality can improve the efficiency of production factors in a comprehensive way, improve the efficiency of resource allocation at the macro level, promote the economic spanformation of the whole society, increase the input output ratio of enterprises, achieve product upgrading and promote industrial upgrading at the micro level. 
 some of our products industry, such as steel, nonferrous metals, petroleum and petroleum refining products and chemical fertilizers, pesticides, organic materials, rubber products and other chemical industry's main products, the quality of their products has been in line with international standards, but more products industry is still very different from the world's advanced level. We need to increase the quality improvement efforts and comprehensively promote industrial upgrading and economic spanformation. We need to realize the two one hundred year "China dream". The economy is the foundation and quality is the foundation of the foundation. Through the improvement of quality, we can change the extensive economic development mode, adjust the irrational economic structure, achieve economic upgrading, realize the unity of economic development quality and efficiency, employment and income, environmental protection and resource conservation, and achieve sustainable development; we can resolve the risk of spanformation, deal with accumulated contradictions and achieve harmonious development. 
 strong > 3. quality and efficiency is the necessary way to enhance global competitiveness. /p >
 quality and efficiency quality reflects the level of social productivity, production quantity, variety and specification in unit time are the concrete embodiment of its productive capacity, and are the important signs of a country's comprehensive national strength, and its reliability, sophistication and practicability are representative of its national strength and strength. It is precisely because of the basic position and important role of product quality in the economic and social development that all countries in the world attach great importance to quality work and take the overall level of product quality as the main direction and basic way of spanformation and development, providing support for economic upgrading and providing impetus for enhancing international competitiveness. Countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea have formulated national strategies for quality development in the critical period of economic spanformation and industrial upgrading. 
From a more macro perspective, the global economy has been adjusting since the financial crisis in 2008. During this period, the global economy entered a period of slow growth. The international division of labor and demand structure changed. The relations between major powers and global economic governance were also being adjusted. New scientific and technological progress and industrial spanfer were brewing, and environmental and energy resources security issues became more prominent. Under such a macro background, after China's foreign trade has experienced twenty or thirty years of rapid growth, we must gradually change the concept of blindly pursuing high growth, accept and adapt to the fact that China's foreign trade is moderately growing, shift the foothold of development to quality and efficiency, and strive to enhance the competitiveness of foreign trade in the fierce global trade competition. 
 which factors affect the quality and efficiency of foreign trade 
 there are many factors that affect the quality and efficiency of foreign trade in the future. There are many factors, such as instability and uncertainty from the slow recovery of the world economy, and the constraints of domestic labor force prices, appreciation of the renminbi, financing costs and environmental costs. But overall, the overall development of China's foreign trade conditions is more favorable than unfavorable factors, and the overall export situation is optimistic. In consolidating the traditional advantages of textile and other labor-intensive industries, high technology industries such as high-speed rail, thermal power and equipment manufacturing are expected to become new growth points for stimulating exports. 
 1. is the positive factor that supports foreign trade to speed up the upgrading of quality and efficiency. /p >
 first, the domestic economy has entered the stage of improving quality and increasing efficiency, and the foundation of foreign trade development is still stable. 2014 will be the first year of comprehensively implementing the party's the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and comprehensive deepening reform. The central economic work conference also proposed improving the level of opening to the outside world. In addition, speeding up the construction of the free trade area and expanding the open reform strategy in the mainland of Yanbian will further explore and cultivate the advantages of China's all-round open economy and promote the growth of import and export trade. At present, China's economic growth is still in a reasonable range and expected targets, and there are still many positive factors to achieve sustained and healthy economic development. In addition, in recent years, efforts have been made to achieve continuous spanformation and structural adjustment. Positive results have been achieved, and the quality and efficiency of economic development have been steadily improved, and endogenous driving force has been continuously enhanced. From the perspective of enterprises, the industries and enterprises that actively promote spanformation and upgrading and independent innovation after the financial crisis have a strong ability to resist risks and develop vitality. {page_break} 
 two is the international economic environment tends to improve, and the international market space is expected to expand. The accelerated recovery of developed economies is expected to lead the world economy to step out of the shadow of the financial crisis, which will also improve the external environment of China's exports. With the mild recovery of the US economy, Europe is gradually out of recession, Japan's economy is picking up, and the external demand environment will continue to improve. The scale of Global trade has bottomed out. 
 consumption in developed countries is expected to expand on the basis of maintaining just demand. Developing countries will actively expand domestic consumption demand and achieve economic independent growth, which will produce sustained demand, which means that the external demand space for China's foreign trade development has an objective basis for further expansion. From the trend, the overall price level of China's imports will remain at a relatively low level, which will help our enterprises to reduce import costs and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, it will also provide favorable opportunities for enterprises to grasp the import rhythm. 
 three is the accelerated process of China's open economic reform, and the internal and external environment for the development of foreign trade continues to improve. As China's reform in the financial sector, trade system, trade development direction, trade content and trade environment has been further promoted, more potential demand will be fully released. The level of trade facilitation will be significantly improved, and the trade development environment will continue to optimize. It will play a positive role in improving trade efficiency, enhancing trade competitiveness and expanding market share in Global trade. At the same time, the construction of the free trade area with emphasis on China Japan Korea free trade area will be accelerated, and the regional trade environment will continue to improve. 
 2. restrictive factors affecting the normal growth of future foreign trade 
 first, influenced by factors like labor force price rise, RMB appreciation, financing cost and environmental protection cost, domestic enterprises' foreign trade costs are rising and foreign trade growth space is squeezed. 
 two is the decline in the actual use of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry in 2013, the downturn in processing trade imports, and the measures to resolve excess capacity, which will have a certain restrictive effect on the import and export of foreign trade. 
 three is that in recent years, China's economy will continue to intensify structural adjustment, especially efforts to solve the problem of serious excess capacity, which will inhibit the rapid growth of import demand. 
 four is that China's knowledge, technology and capital intensive products are at a disadvantage, such as optical, metrology, medical and precision instruments, which are less competitive in the international market, and there is a clear gap with the international trade powers. 
 five is the number of trade remedy investigation cases and the amount of money involved in China is still running at a high level in recent years. The future trade frictions will expand from a single product dispute between enterprises to a certain industry, and from labor intensive products to photovoltaic and other emerging industries will have a negative impact on the quality and efficiency of foreign trade. 
 the main way to improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade is /p >
 we should soberly realize that it is a relatively long process to move from a trading power to a trade power. It is not only a problem of foreign trade, but also involves the upgrading of the overall strength of the national economy and the upgrading of the industrial structure. 
 1. raise the level of opening to the outside world, accelerate the pace of "going out", and promote the steady growth of exports /p >
 we must comprehensively promote the construction of Shanghai free trade area, and constantly explore and summarize the problems and experiences in the process of practice. On this basis, we should appropriately increase the pilot scale of free trade zones with different scales in Tianjin and Shenzhen, and constantly explore new paths for reform so as to form a replicable and popularized experience and serve the development of the whole country. At the same time, in the process of operation, we should pay attention to the supervision and handling of violations, and fully implement and implement the overall plan and implementation rules of the Shanghai free trade area. We should consider further relaxing the management and restrictions on foreign investment and reducing the negative list in the future. 
 we must give full play to the leading role of "going out" to exports, expand the way of export of enterprises, bypass various barriers to trade protection and reduce the burden of enterprises. Enterprises should be encouraged to take part in overseas investment in the form of participation, holding, merger and acquisition. Combined with major projects such as energy development, resource integration and strategic investment, export of machinery, mechanical and electrical products and consumer goods will be promoted by means of export credit and foreign assistance. 
 2. strengthening policy guidance, promoting industrial upgrading and optimizing export commodity structure /p >
In order to adapt to the development of international trade and realize the spanformation of China's trade Powerhouse at an early date, we must strengthen policy guidance, formulate reasonable foreign trade development strategy and strive for maximum economic benefits in order to adapt to the development of international trade. At the same time, we should upgrade the existing industries, strengthen the optimization of export commodities, vigorously introduce advanced production technologies, accelerate the development of high-tech products, support the high and new technology industries, create a favorable development environment for enterprises, so as to spanform the export growth mode, improve the technological content of export products, and enhance the international competitiveness. 
 3. accelerate the development of service industry and enhance the international competitiveness of service trade 
 we must strengthen the development of the service market and strengthen the competitiveness in international trade, which is a prerequisite for a trading power. To this end, China should speed up the development of the service industry, constantly upgrade its existing service industries, enhance its international competitiveness, strive to integrate with the international market at an early date, strengthen service exports, and adhere to the road of quality and brand. 
 4. strengthening macro control and regulating export order /p >
 trade powerful countries regulate their export order by establishing a sound system and effectively playing the role of chambers of Commerce. We should learn from the experience of trade powers, make full use of the chamber of Commerce to carry out international market research work, grasp the relevant information in a timely and comprehensive way, and set up a bridge between enterprises and the government to spanmit information quickly. At the same time, with the help of relevant government departments, the chamber of commerce can manage the operation order in the industry and prevent the occurrence of low price bidding among enterprises. At the same time, we must strengthen self-discipline, advocate fair competition, punish low price exports, and oppose internal unfair competition.