November 22, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] the operation of Zheng cotton is different from each other.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20577 yuan / ton; 229 level 19708 yuan / ton; 328 level 18867 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18096 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10350 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14410 yuan / ton; C32S price 25760 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, with the continuous expansion of domestic and foreign cotton prices, the competitiveness of real estate cotton is weak, most of the textile enterprises are still outside cotton as the focus of procurement.

Despite the recent increase in enquiries and purchases, the turnover is still not satisfactory. In addition, rumours suggest that the spot market will be under great pressure at the end of the year or continue to sell and the downstream market of textiles continues to be weak.

3. imported cotton: in November 21st, the price of China's main port of import cotton rose by 0.25-0.50 cents.

With the re stabilization of foreign cotton prices, market pactions tend to be calm.

At present, domestic cotton prices have been slightly stronger, while international cotton prices are relatively stable, and internal and external spreads are still the driving force to attract SMEs to buy cotton.

After large enterprises' inventory is gradually abundant, SMEs are still looking forward to adequate cotton resources.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: last week (12-16 November 2012) was the 2012 week of cotton temporary purchase and storage paction for ninth weeks, and the volume of weekly turnover continued to decrease, with a cumulative turnover approaching 2 million 500 thousand tons.

As of November 16th, a total of 2 million 490 thousand and 100 tons were registered this year, of which 1 million 671 thousand and 900 tons in Xinjiang and 818 thousand and 200 tons in the mainland.

5.ICE cotton: before the Thanksgiving holiday, there was a narrow fluctuation in the 21 day ICE cotton market. The paction was still dominated by 12/3 month contracts. The recent contracts fell, and the contracts for the long term rose steadily.

On the 22 day, the market will be closed for Thanksgiving Day and resume trading on the 23 th.

Summary:

The US cotton March contract has a support of 70 cents / pound on the one hand, and on the other hand there is no small pressure on the 60 day moving average.

Zheng cotton aspect, from the price structure, January and March contracts are higher than 5, 7, September contracts, which shows that the market expectations of the stock market after the end of the stock market is weak.

The January and March contracts were higher than the current spot prices, which coincided with the gradual shortage of cotton resources, especially high-grade cotton resources, in the storage period.

For the far month contract, when the price of Zheng cotton is higher than the cotton price of social circulation, the cotton buying enterprise has no power to choose futures purchase channel.

This determines that futures prices lose the buying power from spot enterprises.

In terms of contracts in the near future, we should pay full attention to the policy of purchasing and storing in operation, focusing on the idea of doing more in the bargain market.

Of course, the support for the May contract in the vicinity of 19000 is not small.

[MEIKO futures] before the Thanksgiving Day, the trend of the external market is stable.

In the overnight market, us spot cotton prices fell on Wednesday, due to the number of displaced positions before the first notice on Friday, and cotton producers worried about further fall in cotton prices.

ICE cotton futures fell 0.12 cents, or 0.16%, at 72.38 cents a pound in December.

Before the expiry of December 6th, more than 9315 unliquidated contracts were less liquid.

The market is quiet before the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

The market will be closed on Thursday.

In the international market, 20 days, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell by 0.75 cents.

Recently, the demand in the international market has shown signs of warming. Textile mills have been replenishing stocks by the drop in cotton prices. The demand for major cotton markets in the United States is more active, which provides support for international cotton prices.

Taking into account the uncertainty of policy next year, the current textile enterprises purchase mainly from the end of the year before and after the arrival of foreign cotton, long-term orders are not ideal.

If ICE can continue to stabilize near 70 cents, spot demand will continue to flow.

domestic

On the 21 day, the price of China's main port of import cotton rose slightly by 0.25-0.50 cents.

With the re stabilization of foreign cotton prices, market pactions tend to be calm.

At present, domestic cotton prices have been slightly stronger, while international cotton prices are relatively stable, and internal and external spreads are still the driving force to attract SMEs to buy cotton.

After large enterprises' inventory is gradually abundant, SMEs are still looking forward to adequate cotton resources.

Before the country starts a new round of dumping, the focus of the market will still be the outer cotton, but it is difficult for the textile enterprises to purchase large quantities of funds in the light of the capital problem.

In November 21st, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 62740 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 2648060 tons in 2012, including 912340 tons in the mainland and 1735720 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, November 21st, US cotton 85.50, discount general trade port delivery price 14590 yuan / ton; Australia cotton 93.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15605 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15346 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 84.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14483 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14542 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19721 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan; B refers to CNCotton B 18880 yuan, up 13 yuan.

Market analysis, cotton by-product prices and sales sluggish, indirect impact on lint prices, domestic high reserves in front of the market, the spot market, the purchase and sale of lint will affect the cotton price trend.

Zheng pan was strong and weak in the wake of the purchase and storage. The 01 contract day K line continued to rise, and there was pressure in the 19800-20000 interval.

05, the contract continues to be weak as a whole, focusing on the support of 18950 below and breaking down the bottom space.

Operation, the 05 empty single continued to hold, see support 18950, fall below the open space; buy the long term arbitrage can still continue to hold.

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Wanda futures] US cotton rose slightly before Thanksgiving.

On the 22 day, Thanksgiving Day in the United States was closed for a day. The overall market was slack. The ICE cotton contract rose slightly, except for the December contract. The remaining contracts rose slightly, and the main contract in March was 0.17 cents to 72.66 cents / pound.

But with the closing of the year, the fund is facing the pressure of settlement. China's import policy has not yet been determined, and buying is hard to stimulate. ICE cotton is hard to attract enough support for buying, and it is expected that cotton prices will remain volatile in the future, focusing on the 70-74 cents / pound crosses area.

Wednesday ICE cotton Xiao Yang reported, the main force in March contract stable short term average line, short-term average line turn up, KD and MACD index in the overfall area continue to rise in a row, MACD index red column continues to grow, short-term rebound will continue, pay attention to March contract 74 cents / pound pressure level.

Zheng cotton still continues the pattern of low position, although the contract is expected to maintain its strength in recent months, but the overall market demand is low, the annual closing is close, and enterprise funds are tight. Some textile enterprises in the spring festival may leave early and postpone the start, and the probability of replenishment before the festival is not large.

At the same time, the market generally believes that the government may issue additional quotas or throw stores to ease the resource shortage caused by the purchase and storage after the end of the purchase and storage in March, and speculation and consumption buying are suppressed.

Will continue to decline, continue to hold 1305 empty contracts, pay attention to 1305 contracts 19000 yuan / ton strong support position and 19200 yuan / ton pressure level.