New Cotton Will Be Launched On A Large Scale Seasonally.

The domestic policy hype has been basically digested. At the meeting of the China Cotton Association held yesterday, the time for throwing and storing and storing has also been settled. once New cotton On a large scale, the atmosphere will become warmer and will have a substantial impact on the market. At the same time, the seasonal law also shows that the rebound in cotton prices will start after October. In addition, the Fed started QE again, and in the background of the release of liquidity in the peripheral market, Zheng cotton came back with a pullback.

　 Seasonal regularity shows that this is a good opportunity to build a warehouse.

By analyzing the trend of Zheng cotton futures prices in the past 6 years, we can see: 8, September, new cotton has not yet been listed, and the market is in the period of blue and white, and cotton prices have rebounded. After September, new flowers have been listed, and cotton prices have started to go down until the bottom of October has started to fall back and rebound; 11, December, near the Spring Festival, textile enterprises' demand for cotton has been gradually released, the seasonal index has stood at more than 1, and prices are showing positive growth; next year February, after the Spring Festival, with the textile enterprises starting one after another, the demand for replenishment is increasing, and cotton prices are on the rise. In March, after reaching the high point, 4 and 4 callbacks will enter 6, 7, and 6 of the textile off-season. According to the seasonal rule of zhengmian price, at present, more than a half of September has passed, and the space under zhengmian is limited.

　　 New cotton's large-scale listing to boost market activity

stay China Cotton Association On the agenda, Zhang Xianbin, chairman of the NDRC, said that the main keynote of the current temporary purchase and storage policy was to ensure the smooth operation of the cotton price, while throwing the reserve to meet the market demand before the new year's cotton market. At the same time, imported cotton will no longer be allocated quotas in the later stage, and will be determined after next year's supply and demand situation is clear. The recent policy hype is far more volatile than the balance of supply and demand for cotton prices. However, whether it is the speculation of granting quotas, dumping or storing up, it has basically come to an end. The repeated oscillation market of Zheng cotton will end with the dust of policy. New cotton has not yet been listed on a large scale, and the market is light. However, once the new cotton is listed on a large scale, the storage will go on like a raging fire. The market atmosphere will gradually become more active, and cotton prices will probably show the pattern of moving upward.

　　 QE3 stimulates cotton price rebound

The Fed released the latest interest rate decision statement 13 days ago, and the Federal Open Market Committee members agreed to launch a new round of quantitative easing projects with the result of 11 votes in favour and 1 votes against it. Affected by this, the US dollar index fell sharply, the US stock market rose sharply, and the commodity market also benefited from it. However, because of the fact that the global cotton fundamentals were not very optimistic, cotton prices rose less than others. Compared with the previous two QE, although the intensity is different, they have brought a substantial increase to cotton, which has both commodity attributes and financial attributes. Today, the "no limit" easing of US currency will drive global commodity prices up, and the release of liquidity will stimulate cotton prices to rebound.

In 2012, the good expectation of the purchase and storage is expected to have a strong supporting role for the 1301 contract of zhengmian main force, while the 1305 contract is not in the time window of the purchase and storage, and there is uncertainty in the market for the future, so the market shows a strong and weak state. As of September 18th, the price difference between the 1305 contract and the 1301 contract was less than 100 yuan / ton, which was in the low range. However, according to the 4 month position cost calculation of the intertemporal arbitrage theory, the price difference between the two parties is about 500 yuan / ton. At present, there is room for about 400 yuan / ton, and the restoration of the latter price gap is worth looking forward to. It is a cross - time arbitrage opportunity to sell 1301 contracts for 1305 contracts.

Operation suggestion

In the short term, Zheng cotton continued to rebound after breaking through the middle track of the brin channel, and the 1301 contract continued to operate at 19500 yuan / ton in the medium orbit, indicating that there is still a rising energy price in the period. In the medium and long term, at present, the area where Zheng cotton is located is the value area, and cotton price enters the rebound channel after the large-scale cotton market has been launched. The spot price is close to the area of 19400 - 20400 yuan / ton, and the futures price is close to the area of 20000 - 21000 yuan / ton. Investment People can gradually build their positions on the 1301 contract.