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India's cotton export ban has been retraced, causing global cotton prices to be hit hard. 12, the US cotton futures price has reached a new low of 87.03 cents / pound this year, and the Zheng cotton 1209 contract has also dropped to 21500 yuan / ton line. Because the demand for downstream cotton market has always been difficult to start this year, the supply and demand of loose prospects has led to a continuous rise in inventory consumption, and there is no real impetus for the upward trend of Zheng cotton price.

　　 High inventory consumption ratio makes cotton price under pressure.

According to the latest monthly demand and supply report released by the US Department of agriculture, cotton production in Brazil and Pakistan increased significantly, leading to an increase of 65 thousand tonnes from 2011/12 to 26 million 920 thousand tons in the year from the previous month, while the global demand for cotton in the current year has been reduced by 216 thousand tons to 23 million 671 thousand tons, due to the shrinking consumption in China. In the case of continuous imbalance between supply and demand, the end of this year's global cotton inventories will increase by 337 thousand tons from last month to 13 million 569 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio has climbed to 57.32% from 41.3% in the previous year, the highest in nearly ten years. The US cotton inventory consumption ratio rose to 27.08%, and China's cotton inventory consumption ratio climbed to 46.13%. Global cotton prices are facing a new round of pressure due to the weakening demand and high inventory prices. It is understood that as of March 12th, the US cotton futures price fell 6.22% in five consecutive trading days, while Zheng cotton had the support of the policy of purchasing and storage, but the price in the last five trading days also fell 2.53%.

　　 India cancels cotton export ban

Though in March 5th, India The government's ban on cotton exports has made global cotton prices boil up in the short term. However, due to the lack of global cotton demand and the lack of sustainability in cotton market, Zheng cotton and Mei cotton have only one day trips. In the following days, the ban did not bring the gospel to cotton in India, but was rejected by the domestic people. Due to the prohibition of exports, a large number of cotton was hoarded in India port, resulting in a drop in cotton prices due to oversupply. India cotton farmers suffered heavy losses and began to openly oppose the government ban. In addition to pressure from many countries, the India government was forced to cancel the cotton export ban on the 12 day. It is understood that India is the second largest exporter of cotton in addition to the United States. The annual export of cotton is about 1 million 700 thousand tons, of which 1 million 10 thousand tons are exported to China, accounting for 30% of China's cotton imports, accounting for 10% of the total annual demand. The cancellation of export ban will eliminate the tight expectation of China's cotton supply this year. At the same time, cheap India cotton will also lower the price of domestic cotton, thereby weakening the driving force of Zheng cotton price rise.

　　 Spin Export shrinkage

The sale of gauze is not smooth, which directly reduces the consumption of cotton. Cotton storage Survey, as of March 8th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample survey enterprises was about 41.5 days, an increase of 2.5 days, an increase of 7.2 days compared with the same period, an increase of 6.1 days compared with the average level in the past three years. The national cotton industry inventory is about 1 million 23 thousand tons, an increase of 6.4%, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.3% over the past three years. In the context of continued high cotton stocks, Zheng cotton price is difficult to enhance space.

Annual 3 and April are the sowing dates of domestic cotton. From the current situation, cotton and soil moisture in Hebei and Shandong areas are not optimistic, and farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has been weakened. However, in view of the new year's cotton storage and storage price increased by 600 yuan / ton, the space for new cotton planting in this year will be limited. It is expected that there will be little room for the downward trend of the price of cotton in the late period, but there is still a lack of support for downstream consumption.