Insight Into The Trend Of Textile Market Investment

In the face of the changing economic situation at home and abroad, the textile and garment industry in 2012 is still developing and changing. The overall situation is still good, but we still need to guard against a "phased slowdown". Due to the impact of comprehensive cost and domestic capital pressure, some new solutions will also emerge from the investment strategy in the field of textile and clothing.

The concept of "consumption" is still being pursued. The concept of "foreign trade" may be cold.

Among the various factors that affect the operation of the textile and garment industry, the adjustment of industrial structure and elimination of backward production capacity are still the main thread of the development of the 2012 textile and garment industry. With a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises with backward technology and profit margins withdrawing from competition, the resources of the industry will be concentrated on the dragon head enterprises, and the intensity of industry consolidation will be likely to increase. At the same time, the weakening of inflation and the loosening of monetary policy will not only alleviate the tension of enterprises' capital, but also promote the demand of downstream consumer market. And the concept of consumption will be a major highlight of the 2012 textile and garment sector.

In addition, 2012 is the second year of the implementation of the 12th Five-Year plan. It is also a key year for the textile and garment industry to adjust its industrial structure and achieve sustained, stable and healthy development under the complex economic situation at home and abroad. Judging from the international macroeconomic situation, the negative impact of the European debt crisis on the European consumer market will not change substantially in the short term. Europe and America The market may face a long period of recession. Another big concept of the "textile and garment sector" is that "foreign trade" may be cold in 2012.

Local brands "preconceived" two or three line cities become the main battlefield.

According to the current situation, China's local brands have not lagged behind, and quite a few local brands have long been rooted in the 234 line market of China. Because the domestic brand has the advantage of local channel, it is easier to use the two or three line city's joining mode, and is more familiar with the consumption habits of the two or three line cities. Therefore, the domestic brands still occupy a very large scale advantage in the two or three line cities. At present, domestic brands have basically occupied 90% of the two or three line cities.

China's huge market has played a huge consumption power. By the end of 2010, the domestic retail sales of clothing and textiles had reached about 587 billion 400 million yuan. In 2012, China Merchants Securities pointed out that in 2010, 50% of the clothing market was made up of small and medium-sized cities. In the future, 2/3 middle income and wealthy consumers will live in two or three line cities. By 2020, this proportion will increase to 60%. In the vast land of China, the two or three line market is the real big market. In the future, the huge number of China's two or three line cities will become the main battleground of Chinese and foreign brands competing for hegemony.

Clothing consumption "phase slowdown" investment emphasizes sales ability

Because of the greatly reduced capacity of clothing prices, and domestic Economics Slower growth or a certain degree of pressure on demand, so there is a sustained growth momentum is sustained sales growth of the industry or company.

The price of raw materials will stabilize in 2012, and the average price increase will be weaker than that in 2011. At the same time, the slowdown of domestic economic growth will have a certain impact on demand, but sales volume is expected to rise to a certain extent. It is estimated that domestic apparel consumption growth in 2012 will be able to achieve a more rapid growth of 15%~20%, and maintain the "recommended" rating of the brand consumer industry. Among them, we need to guard against the impact of slow growth on investment opportunities at a phased level, but we can still get relatively good growth throughout the year.

Investment strategy is "changing from time to time".

As the current stage of economic growth is slowing down the consumption growth rate, for most companies, the 2012 expectations are more secure than those needed to be slightly adjusted before.

Based on the analysis of export situation in 2011, export growth will slow down in 2012. The high cost of comprehensive cost and the multiple domestic financial environment constraints will restrict the development of China's textile and garment processing and manufacturing industry in 2012. Therefore, the investment strategy should be changed at the right time. China Merchants Securities recommends that the industry leader with certain scale and R & D advantages should be selected. company Such companies not only have a certain ability to resist fluctuations in raw materials, but also have a stable customer base after years of accumulation of products and brands, and the risk of large loss of orders. The companies with earlier layout of industrial spanfer can slow down the impact of continuous rising of comprehensive costs on enterprises in the long run. The main points are: Lu Tai A, Weixing stock, Dayang creation, Huafu color spinning, Jia Linjie, Jie Jie shares and Shandong Ruyi.