Ministry Of Commerce Take Precautions Against Hard Landing Of Surplus

The gradual change of wind direction has always used the "reduction of surplus" as the top priority of the Ministry of Commerce. It has changed the previous judgement of the excessive export momentum of our country, and has turned out a risk warning for export enterprises to "actively guard against the rapid decline in exports".

The risk of downgrading to the world economy may have an impact on Chinese export enterprises. The Ministry of Commerce Policy Research Office issued a timely warning.

Data show that the first three quarters of this year, China's exports to the United States showed an obvious downward trend.

In the first quarter of this year, China's exports to the United States increased by 20.4% over the same period last year, and dropped to 15.6% in the second quarter. Especially since the outbreak of the debt crisis in July this year, China's exports to the United States increased by only 12.4% in the third quarter.

According to the central bank's research, US economic growth has slowed down by 1 percentage points, and China's exports will decline by 6 percentage points.

There are signs that the macro-control policy has changed.

In November 22nd, Wang Xinpei, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, made it clear that while expanding exports, China paid special attention to expanding imports, hoping to reduce trade imbalance from the perspective of expanding imports.

In response, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with our reporter that the regulatory policy needs to be stable and should not be changed too much.

Optimistic response to export risks, the fragile nerves of export enterprises have been provoked again.

Chen Zhexi, deputy general manager of Wenzhou Tamar shoes industry, complained to reporters on the phone, "the price advantage is gone, and the profits of enterprises are less and less."

The rising exchange rate, the high cost of labor, the trade friction, the difficult pformation and the difficulty of pferring are all perplexing export enterprises.

"The country has more stringent regulation and control policies, plus the impact of exchange rate, the last thing enterprises can do is stop production."

Chen Zhexi said helplessly.

In the first 9 months of this year, China's trade balance reached US $185 billion 540 million, surpassing the scale of last year.

The surplus in October was a record of over $27 billion, setting a new record.

Since the beginning of this year, the state has issued restrictive measures to control exports for many times, but the surplus is still rising.

Faced with rising trade figures, the commerce ministry experts are not optimistic about China's export environment next year.

A series of reports from the Ministry of Commerce Policy Research entitled "downside risks in the world economy" suggests that the financial market turbulence caused by the subprime mortgage crisis may be more serious than expected in the world economy. Therefore, China should pay close attention to the development of the world economy and actively guard against possible economic changes.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, said in an interview with reporters that international demand will slow down next year, but there may be a rebound in domestic investment.

We should pay close attention to the impact of us subordinated debt on China's exports, but we should not be too pessimistic.

In this regard, Mei Xin Yu also expressed the same view and gave the judgement that "the scale of next year's surplus can not be reduced absolutely".

At the same time, he was too concerned about the contents of the report.

Mei Xin Yu analyzed that China's exports to the United States were not completely synchronized with the US economy.

A considerable part of China's exports to the US are cheap goods, and the demand for cheap goods will increase in the US during the recession.

In the second half of 2000, the US economy slipped into recession and was also worried about the decline in exports to the US, but as a result, our exports to the United States continued to grow for several years.

In addition, the US export growth rate has decreased, but the absolute scale has increased.

Moreover, as long as the absolute volume of export scale is declining rapidly, this is a good thing for us to pursue the goal of macroeconomic balance.

China's trade surplus has indeed slowed down this year, and the number of future figures is bound to continue.

Zuo Xiaolei said.

The latest statistics show that in October this year, China's foreign trade export growth slowed down 0.5 percentage points last month, while the import growth rate accelerated by 9.4 percentage points. The growth rate of China's trade surplus has dropped from 86.4% in June to 13.5% in October, and the expansion of the trade surplus has continued to slow down.

For the next year's foreign trade situation, the Ministry of Commerce forecasts that China's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2008 in the light of the economic development environment at home and abroad, but the growth rate will slow down, which will be around 15%, and the total volume of imports and exports will exceed 2 trillion and 400 billion dollars.

Zhang Ping, a steel analyst at the joint steel network, told reporters that it is expected that next year there will be a two policy for the adjustment of iron and steel exports. At present, steel exports have begun to decline, and the downward trend will continue until next year.

Most of the energy companies will also slow down exports because of rising import costs of raw materials.

In view of the possible ups and downs of the foreign trade situation next year, the Ministry of Commerce said in November 22nd that our government is actively taking measures to promote trade balance.

At the same time, a number of measures have been taken to promote imports.

One of the measures included the opening of the 22 Latin American and East European Commodity Exhibition hosted by the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing. The exhibitors from 16 countries such as Columbia, Brazil and Hungary brought their products with their own characteristics.

Feng Hongzhang, director of the Ministry of foreign trade development of the Ministry of Commerce, said: "we give free booths to foreign exhibitors. At the same time, we provide free funding to these countries to hold various promotional meetings during the exhibition, which fully demonstrates China's sincerity in easing trade balance and actively expanding imports."

Mei Xin Yu also believes that in the next year's foreign trade policy, the government should seek a balance in the surplus, adopt a two-way regulation mechanism that has both advantages and disadvantages, help Chinese enterprises to go out, increase investment in foreign countries, and reduce the frequency of export control policies. For enterprises themselves, they should seek solutions by means of Hongkong or Eurasian platforms.