The Central Government Set The Tone For Next Year's Economic Policy: To Stabilize Prices In A More Prominent Position.

　　 Central economic work conference It was held in Beijing in from December 10th to 12th. Hu Jintao, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council delivered an important speech.

The conference put forward six major tasks for next year's economic work: "strengthening and improving macroeconomic regulation and control, maintaining stable and healthy operation of the economy".

The meeting pointed out that next year Macroeconomic policy The basic orientation should be robust, prudent and flexible. Must put Stable price level In a more prominent position.

　 Distinct main line: changing the way of development

Judging from the spirit of the central economic work conference, both the overall grasp and the six tasks of the specific deployment reflect the distinctive characteristics of the transformation of the mode of development.

Since the beginning of this year, the overcapacity of some industries, the shortage of some energy varieties, and the rapid increase in trade frictions against China have made it more urgent and necessary to change the way of development. On the other hand, the world economic structure is facing new adjustment, and the pressure of resources and environment is transforming into a huge innovation power. New energy, new materials, information networks, biomedicine, energy conservation and environmental protection will be ready for innovation. Changing the way of development also determines whether China can take a favorable position in the new round of competition.

Speaking of the big topic of changing development mode, Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "the core is to adjust the economic structure so as to find new impetus for economic development and enhance competitiveness in the world."

　 Basic orientation: active and prudent policy

Macroeconomic regulation and control next year will face extremely complex domestic and international environment. Compared with the past two years, on the one hand, we must maintain a certain growth rate on the one hand. On the other hand, we should deal with increasing price pressures. At the same time, we should make great efforts to make structural adjustment. The goal of macroeconomic regulation and control is changing from a relatively simple one to a gradual one. This also determines that the macro-control policy needs to be more targeted, flexible and effective.

The central economic work conference clearly pointed out that the basic orientation of macroeconomic policy next year is "vigorous, prudent and flexible", and we need to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

On the day of the opening of the central economic work conference, the central bank announced that the deposit reserve ratio should be raised again. This is the sixth time this year and the third time the reserve requirement ratio has been raised in the past month, which highlights the "steady" characteristics of the current monetary policy.

　　 I. price management inflation expectations

[highlights] next year's macroeconomic policy will focus on more actively and steadily handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, speeding up the strategic adjustment of the economic structure, and putting the overall level of stable prices in a more prominent position. We should increase subsidies for agricultural production and steadily raise the minimum grain purchase price.

[interpretation] in recent months, the overall level of consumer prices has risen month by month. In November, CPI rose 5.1% and inflation pressure was bigger. The factors that affect prices will continue to exist next year. Stabilizing prices is an urgent task for macroeconomic regulation and control at present and in the coming period.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China believes that the adjustment of monetary policy must be effective in achieving a basically stable overall price level. In the medium to long term, it is also necessary to strengthen the input of weak links such as agriculture, and reform the income distribution mechanism and improve the social security system, so as to alleviate the pressure on residents, especially the middle and low income groups.

Zhang Xiaojing, director of the macroeconomic Office of the Institute of economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, judged that the price trend in the future is not optimistic, but "there will be no vicious inflation". He said that with the development of urbanization, the prices of agricultural products will rise. However, due to the oversupply of domestic industrial products and the continuous harvest of grain, coupled with the adjustment of monetary policy, there will be no hyperinflation in the future.

[voice]

The task of containing inflation is quite arduous.

Senior economist Lu Zheng commissar of Xingye Bank: the task of curbing inflation next year will be quite arduous. There is a conflict in the short term because of expanding consumption and curbing inflation. If it is not handled well, it is likely to plunge into "rising prices - raising wages - the second round of price rises." Such a "price wage rise spiral". Especially if credit is still fixed at 7 trillion next year, this risk will be further increased.

The threat of economic downturn is more serious.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the central economic conference did not say "controlling inflation", or adopted a relatively light saying that "managing inflation expectations".

Inflation will have a great impact on economic growth, and the threat of economic downturn is even more serious than the threat of inflation expectations. The regulation of prices must be carried out without excessive economic growth.

　 Two, monetary policy is vigorous and steady.

[meeting highlights] we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and give full play to the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing growth, improving structure, regulating distribution and promoting harmony.

We must implement a prudent monetary policy, and in accordance with the requirements of overall stability, adjustment and structural optimization, we should better manage the total gate of liquidity and invest more credit funds in the real economy, especially the "three rural" and small and medium-sized enterprises.

[interpretation] Unlike the statement "continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" put forward at the central economic work conference last year, the conference proposes that China will implement prudent monetary policy next year while continuing to implement the proactive fiscal policy. The dual fiscal and monetary policy has changed from "positive and moderate" to "positive and steady" in the past two years. This change is meaningful.

On the opening day of the conference, the central bank announced the sixth and the third increase in the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions during the year, and further released the signals that monetary conditions continue to return to normal.

Experts point out that "prudent" has a "contraction" than "moderately relaxed", but it is a neutral policy. It will not be obviously "tight". It should be more flexible and responsive in terms of specific operations. It also stresses the rational and appropriate use of all kinds of tools.

"Monetary policy has shifted from" moderately loose "to" steady "in the past two years. It is a positive response to the current liquidity problem which is too loose and prices are constantly innovating and complicated. Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, believes that under the background of excess liquidity and high inflation expectations, monetary policy has turned to a steady trend, which aims to normalise the monetary environment of the economy and stabilize the overall price level and maintain a smooth and healthy operation of the economy.

In addition, in order to play a good role in managing inflation expectations in line with a robust monetary policy, Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the financial institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (micro-blog), pointed out that fiscal policy should also play its policy responsibilities of providing supply. On the one hand, it should maintain the expansion of supply in the livelihood of the people, such as pushing into the public housing construction plan, promoting the people's livelihood construction such as health care reform, education, pension and so on. On the other hand, it will support private economic development through tax cuts and other measures, and increase subsidies to the middle and low income people. Through these financial cooperation policies, we can better enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing the money. {page_break}

　 Three, fiscal reform to gradually improve the personal tax system.

[highlights] we should actively promote reforms in the areas of finance, taxation, finance, investment, resources and environment, accelerate the establishment and improvement of the basic financial security mechanism at the county level, gradually improve the personal income tax system, and study and promote the pilot reform of the scope of value-added tax collection in some producer services sectors, and further promote the resource tax reform.

[interpretation] Ceng Kanghua, director of the Department of Finance and finance and Taxation Research Institute, School of finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, said that this year's central economic conference has no difference in terms of fiscal and tax reform, and tax reform is closely related to the overall situation of economic development. In terms of personal tax adjustment, Ceng Kanghua said that in view of the great changes in the economic situation over the past few years, it is possible to make some adjustments in the starting point, but the rate will not be too great.

Ceng Kanghua said that the tax adjustment is mainly based on the macroeconomic situation, and the economic situation is good. During the period of strong growth, the necessity of tax reform is relatively low. When the economic situation fluctuates greatly, the pace of tax reform will be relatively large.

The tax exemption amount has been unchanged since 2008, but it has not changed since 2008. However, in the past two years, China's economy has undergone great development in all aspects. Ceng Kanghua believes that the starting point of 2000 yuan is obviously low, so we should raise the threshold of 2000 yuan and make a distinction between the lives of different people.

But Ceng Kanghua believes that even if the tax threshold is not adjusted, there will be no significant increase. "It should be raised to 2500 yuan."

In addition, Ceng Kanghua also pointed out that the current 9 level excessive progressive tax rate appears too much, it is necessary to adjust, "western countries are mostly three or four since 1980s, so our personal tax rate is also necessary."

　　 Four, housing security building affordable housing dual housing system

[meeting highlights] we need to accelerate the building of the housing security system, strengthen the government's responsibility, mobilize all aspects of society, increase the construction of affordable housing projects, accelerate the transformation of shanty towns and rural dilapidated houses, vigorously develop public rental housing, alleviate the difficulties encountered by the masses in housing, and gradually form a affordable housing system and commodity housing system conforming to the national conditions.

[interpretation] yesterday, Chen Guoqiang, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Peking University, told our reporter that the "affordable housing system" and "commercial housing system" were put together in the economic conference.

Over the years, the "dual track" mode of affordable housing and commercial housing has been shaped under the increasingly severe housing problem. The central economic work conference is a clear direction for the future housing development, and the development of affordable housing has also become an indisputable fact.

Yesterday, Chen Guoqiang believes that from the meeting, we can see that in the future, the government will become the core link of housing policy in increasing the construction of affordable housing.

In the construction of affordable housing, Chen Guoqiang said that the construction of affordable housing used to raise resources by the government. Now we should broaden the channels of resources and guide and support private capital to enter the affordable housing sector. There are several restrictive factors in the construction of affordable housing. Capital is a very important aspect. Supporting and guiding private capital into affordable housing can largely solve the problem of capital.

For the "double track" parallel to meet the needs of covering the market, Chen Guoqiang believes that the "vigorously develop public rental housing" mentioned in the policy can be seen that public rental housing has been identified as the main form of affordable housing, and public rental housing is a good way to solve the "sandwich level" housing problem in cities. "I believe these two systems can cover all the people."

Reporters learned that in 2011, the government will also make efforts in building affordable housing. According to the voice of China, the housing department plans to arrange 10 million sets of affordable housing and all kinds of shanty towns for housing reform next year, which is much higher than the 5 million -600 level expected by the market, which is nearly doubled over the 5 million 800 thousand set of affordable housing construction plans this year.

　　 Five, reform and tackling key problems and strengthening top-level design reform.

[highlights] intensify reform and push forward the transformation of economic development mode. We must comprehensively push forward reform in all fields with greater determination and courage. We should strengthen the top-level design of reform and make breakthroughs in key areas and key links. We should deepen the collective forest right system and the reform of state-owned enterprises.

[interpretation] Chi Fulin, President of China (Hainan) reform and Development Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview with the newspaper that reform needs top-level design because of the depth and complexity of reform in reality. "If we do not work hard in reform, the structural contradictions in the macro economy will be difficult to solve."

The so-called top-level design, Chi Fulin explained that reform is central planning, planning and coordination. He pointed out that the structural contradictions and institutional contradictions have highlighted the important role of reform in the macro-economy and the decisive role in the transformation of development mode during the next and even 12th Five-Year years.

Chi Fulin pointed out that in view of the outstanding structural features of the reform and the need for top-level design of the Central Committee, some important breakthroughs can be made in some aspects of reform. "For example, the income distribution, which involves the adjustment of the interests of the whole society, has a high degree of concern. It is profound, complex and long-term. It requires the top-level design of the central government." {page_break}

　 Six, income distribution and income distribution reform.

[meeting highlights] we should study and formulate reform plans for income distribution and strive to reverse the trend of widening income gap. We must adhere to the strategic adjustment of the economic structure as the main direction for accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic development. We should adjust and optimize the demand structure, enhance the pulling power of consumption, and focus on improving the consumption ability of residents, improving the consumption conditions of residents, and cultivating new consumption hot spots.

[interpretation] for the reform of income distribution, Chi Fulin, President of China (Hainan) reform and Development Research Institute, said yesterday that this is not only the issue of income distribution, but also the focus of macroeconomic issues. "Changing the way of development, improving the consumption ability of residents, changing the level of consumption and consumption expectations are focused on the reform of income distribution." Therefore, he believes that this proposal is very important.

As for the reform plan of income distribution, Chi Fulin thought that after the central economic conference, relevant departments would study closely, and there might be a result by the end of this year and early next year.

　 Seven, local debt to prevent blind spots on the project

[meeting highlights] in order to maintain steady growth in fiscal revenue and optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, we are determined to reduce general expenditure and practise strict economy. We must strengthen local government debt management and resolutely prevent the blind deployment of projects and projects through the opening of 12th Five-Year.

We should further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

[interpretation] yesterday, Zhong Dajun, director of the economic observation and research center of the Beijing army, said in an interview with our reporter that to prevent the blind start of the project by "12th Five-Year", it is precisely that the officials at all levels are motivated by the "GDP only" concept of performance and use the conventional action in 12th Five-Year, so this time they made special emphasis at the central economic conference.

But he said that the key to changing this approach is to change the way of development, turn the indicators of achievements into account, and take people's livelihood indicators as a measure of political performance, so that officials will not be keen on projects.

Regarding the issue of RMB exchange rate, the senior economist of Xingye Bank, Lu Zheng commissar, told the newspaper yesterday that although the central economic work conference simply reiterated the old saying that "further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level", it still means that the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar and the appreciation rate of RMB effective exchange rate next year will also be a matter worthy of attention in the future. "It is very likely that the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar will be greater than that of this year, and even the effective exchange rate may also appreciate."

　　 Main tasks of economic work in 2010

First, increase the level of macroeconomic regulation and control and maintain steady and rapid economic development.

Two, increase the intensity of economic restructuring and improve the quality and efficiency of economic development.

Three, consolidate the development foundation of "three rural issues" and expand the space for domestic demand growth.

Four, deepen the reform of the economic system and enhance the driving force and vitality of economic development.

Five, promote steady growth of exports and promote balance of payments.

Six, efforts should be made to protect and improve people's livelihood and maintain social stability.

Extended reading: the keynote of the central economic work conference held over the years

2010: strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, and maintain stable and healthy operation of the economy.

In 2009, we should combine the steady and rapid economic development and accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, promote transformation in development, and seek development in transformation.

2008: maintain steady and rapid economic development

2007: prevent economic growth from overheating to overheating, and prevent price from structural rise to apparent inflation.

2006: to promote economic and social development into the track of scientific development, and strive to achieve sound and rapid development of the national economy.

2005: maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, strive to improve the quality and effectiveness of economic growth, and achieve rapid and sound development.