The Economic Operation Of China'S Textile Industry Recovered Under Pressure In The First Half Of The Year

Since this year, in the face of a more complex and severe international environment and more urgent high-quality development tasks under the new situation, China's textile industry has fully implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, closely centered on the strategic goal of high-quality development and building a modern industrial system, firmly adhered to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and continued to deepen the promotion of high-end, intelligent Green transformation. As China's economy and society have returned to normal operation in an all-round way, domestic sales of the textile industry have shown a warming trend, and the industrial cycle has become more smooth. However, due to weak external demand, complex trade environment, high production costs and other factors, the growth of major operational indicators of the textile industry, such as production, efficiency and investment, has been under pressure in the first half of the year, and the export pressure has increased significantly. Looking forward to the whole year, the development situation of the textile industry is still complex and severe. There are still many risk factors such as insufficient momentum for the recovery of the world economy, shrinking external demand, intensified competition in the international market, and greater pressure on enterprises' production and operation. The foundation for the textile industry to stabilize and improve still needs to be consolidated.

　　 The overall prosperity of the industry keeps rising, and the production situation continues to recover

In the first half of this year, supported by the continuous improvement of the domestic market situation and the coordinated efforts of the national macro policies, the overall prosperity of China's textile industry kept rising, and the enterprise development expectations improved. According to the survey of China Textile Industry Federation, the comprehensive prosperity index of China's textile industry in the second quarter was 57%, up 10.7 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from the same period of last year and the first quarter of this year, which is a high level since 2022.

Affected by the downturn in external demand, the production situation of the textile industry has fluctuated slightly since this year, but the decline has gradually narrowed. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the capacity utilization rates of the textile industry and chemical fiber industry in the first half of the year were 76.2% and 83.2% respectively, 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points slower than the same period last year, but 0.7 and 1.1 percentage points higher than the first quarter of this year, higher than the 74.7% capacity utilization level of the manufacturing industry in the same period. In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in the textile industry decreased by 3% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling 3.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year, but rising 0.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. The industrial added value of chemical fiber, cotton textile, filament weaving and other sub industries realized positive growth.

　　 Domestic sales have steadily recovered, and export pressure and toughness coexist

Since this year, China's production and living order has been restored in an orderly manner, the consumption scene has been expanded, and the implementation of consumption policies has significantly promoted the growth of domestic demand for textiles and clothing. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles above the designated size increased by 12.8% year on year, and the cumulative growth rate has maintained a double-digit rapid growth level since April this year. New models such as live broadcast short videos have driven the growth of online retail channels. In the first half of the year, China's online retail sales of clothing goods increased by 13.3% year on year, up 10.9 and 4.7 percentage points from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year, higher than the retail growth of food and consumer goods in the same period.

Influenced by factors such as shrinking overseas demand and more complex international trade environment, China's textile industry has seen a significant increase in export pressure since this year, but exports to some markets still show good resilience. According to Chinese customs data, China's textile and clothing exports in the first half of the year totaled US $142.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, and the growth rate slowed by 20.5% and 1.9% respectively compared with the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. Among the main export products, textile exports amounted to US $67.7 billion, down 10.9% year on year, 1.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter; The amount of clothing exports was US $74.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, 4.6 percentage points deeper than that in the first quarter. Among the major export markets, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan declined respectively year on year, and the textile and clothing exports to South Korea, Australia, Russia, five Central Asian countries and other countries along the "Belt and Road" achieved good growth in the same period.

　　 The decline in efficiency has narrowed month by month, and the investment scale has shrunk slightly

Since this year, under the background of low external demand and high cost, the efficiency of the textile industry has declined. However, with the support of the recovery of domestic sales and the implementation of various national control measures, the decline in industry efficiency has narrowed month by month, and the pressure on production and operation has eased compared to the first quarter. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the operating income and total profit of textile enterprises above 37000 households in China decreased by 5.1% and 21.3% respectively year on year, down 10.8 and 4.3 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year, but increased by 2.2 and 11.1 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter of this year. Profits of most links in the industrial chain improved compared with the first quarter, among which the total profits of wool textile, silk, home textile and textile machinery industries achieved positive growth.

Under the situation of increasing pressure on production and operation, textile enterprises have a slight lack of confidence in investment, and the scale of industry investment has shrunk. In the first half of the year, the amount of fixed asset investment in the textile industry, clothing industry and chemical fiber industry decreased by 2%, 5.3% and 7% respectively year on year, of which the decrease in the amount of investment in the textile industry was 2.3 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter.

　　 The development situation is still grim, and we will work together to promote stability under pressure

In the first half of the year, the textile industry actively seized the favorable opportunity to fully restore the normal operation of China's economy and society, worked hard to overcome the risk challenges such as insufficient demand and high operating pressure, and constantly improved its ability to resist risks and development resilience. Although the main economic indicators were operating at a low level, they showed signs of stabilizing, It has played its due role in promoting the recovery of the national economy and improving people's livelihood.

Looking forward to the whole year, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the development of the textile industry, and there are still many difficulties and challenges to achieve a smooth recovery. The international situation is complicated. Uncertainties such as the negative effect of continuous interest rate hikes in developed economies, the high inflation pressure, and the decline in the efficiency of international supply chain cooperation increase the risk of world economic recession and restrict the improvement of international market demand. The domestic macro-economy as a whole will maintain a recovery trend, and the foundation is still unstable. The super large and upgrading domestic demand market will still be the primary driving force for high-quality development of the textile industry; The state has introduced a series of policies and measures in areas such as protecting people's livelihood, promoting consumption, and supporting the development and growth of private economy, which provide important guarantee for the improvement and optimization of market demand and business environment of the textile industry. The textile industry still needs to grasp the favorable opportunity for the domestic production and demand cycle to become more smooth. Based on the domestic demand market from multiple angles, levels and fields, we should focus on promoting technological innovation, business type innovation and supply chain renewal, constantly tap market potential, stimulate operational vitality, better coordinate the rational growth of quantity and effective improvement of quality, and form a joint force to jointly promote high-quality development.

The textile industry will fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the relevant decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the general tone of progress while maintaining stability, constantly consolidate the foundation for stability and recovery, more actively integrate and serve to build a new development pattern, accelerate the accumulation of high-quality development resilience, and strive to ensure the stable and safe operation of the industrial chain supply chain, We will continue to give full play to the positive role of the textile industry in ensuring supply, activating domestic demand, improving employment and income, and make due contributions to promoting the continuous improvement of the economic operation of the industry, completing the main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, and laying a solid foundation for development in building a modern industrial system.

(Source: China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute)