The Market Is Hard To Recover Before The End Of The Year, But The Stock Has Not Been Stacked Up. This Year, The Textile Booth Is Happening.

Due to the early arrival of the off-season, the manufacturers of the conventional products such as spring Asian spinning, polyester taffeta and imitation silk have generally suffered from high inventory problems. Some large factories are even up to tens of millions of meters, and there is only one month left in September when the market began to improve. The market in 2019 is basically over.

This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, this time has been advanced to June or even earlier.

The law of failure and the "bullish" inventory

According to the normal situation in previous years, the textile market usually has two periods:

The first paragraph begins in March and ends in early June. The main products are spring and summer fabrics.

The second paragraph begins in September and ends in November. The main products are autumn and winter fabrics.

And every time during the peak season, the number of orders is the largest, so there are always "gold three silver four" and "golden nine silver ten" argument, but such a statement in the past two years does not seem to be valid.

The following is the average inventory chart of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces since 2017. We can see clearly that:

Before April 2018, although the inventory of weaving enterprises was fluctuating continuously, the overall interval was stable, and inventories increased within a certain period of time. After a certain period of time, they would drop back to their original position.

But after April 2018, great changes took place. Weaving inventory was also rising and falling as time went on, but the rate of decline was totally behind the increase, which eventually led to higher inventory.

According to the data monitoring of China's silk net, the average inventory of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has reached 44 days at the present stage, which is 6 days higher than the 38 highest days in 2018, and two days higher than the 42 highest days in 2019. What is even more frightening is that only a head has just started in July. According to past practice, the inventory of grey fabrics will continue to grow.

　　 As the weaving enterprises are suffering from inventory problems, polyester enterprises are also not very well. Obviously, the average stock of polyester factories in 2019 is higher than that in 2017 and 2018, and 2020 is much higher than that in 2019 because of the epidemic situation.

　　 Promotions and frequent sales of goods, but still can not sell.

　　 In a competitive market, the more products in the market, the fiercer the competition, the lower the price of the product, and even the enterprise may lose money in order to survive. This is a truth that everyone in business knows.

During this period, the textile market showed this trend.

Take the most common pet taffeta in the market as an example, because of low cost, low threshold, relatively easy storage and large demand, so when the market is short of best selling fabrics, polyester taffeta has become a stop loss option for many enterprises.

This has led to a sharp fall in the price of polyester taffeta. At present, the market price has been less than 1 yuan / m, and the machine rate has even become a negative number. Even at such a "loss price", most of the weaving enterprises' inventories are still rising.

　　 The price of polyester filament is almost the same. The oil price rebounded 1000 yuan / ton earlier, but the weaving enterprises simply did not buy it. Polyester enterprises are also very anxious, once again launched the "big promotion", polyester prices also began to fall, but still can not let the iron heart with the purchase and use of weaving enterprises to buy Silk again, the polyester production and sales data in the near future is not very good.

　　 The same is true from the same year. The price of polyester is also inversely proportional to inventory. In the same period of 2018, the price of polyester was nearly 1000 yuan higher than that in 2019, while the price in 2019 was higher than that in 2020 by more than 3000 yuan / ton.

　　 Market rebound or next year, the biggest enemy is time.

A head of the four main weaving enterprises said that the current market is not good, but there are both advantages and disadvantages. Low raw material prices have never been seen before. In fact, we all know that the market will get better. As long as the epidemic situation is controlled, orders will definitely rebound, and the price of raw materials, cloth and dye will definitely rise.

But it's not easy to wait until the market gets warmer. In the International Textile Federation's investigation of the new crown epidemic impact on the members of the International Federation of spinning, associated enterprises and associations, we can see that 20% of the textile enterprises believe that they will be able to recover to the pre crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2020, and that the first and second quarters of 2021 will be restored to 23% and 21% respectively.

　　 Even with the most optimistic estimates and the time needed to prepare ahead of time, such a thin market will last for at least three months. When the market improves, the stock will increase to what extent. Whether the capital chain can be maintained has become a huge challenge for weaving enterprises.

Therefore, for textile enterprises, the biggest enemy is nothing else, but time.