China Has Not Entered The Period Of Negative Interest Rate.

In October 23, 2015, when the people's Bank of China released the management of the deposit interest rate ceiling and basically completed the reform of interest rate marketization, it again cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the benchmark benchmark interest rate for RMB one-year fixed deposit fell to 1.5%, lower than CPI's 0.1 percentage point increase in September. According to some scholars and media, China has entered the era of "negative interest rate".

However, Sheng Songcheng, director of the central bank's mediation and regulation department, pointed out on the 26 day that data show that after the current interest rate cut, the average weighted interest rate of the new year deposits of commercial banks was 2.02% on -10 26 October 24th, which was higher than that of CPI in September, or 0.42 percentage points. Considering the investment and financial behavior of various economic entities, the yield of the current deposit substitution products is generally higher than that of the bank deposit rate, which is significantly higher than the CPI level of the same period. Overall, China is still in the period of "positive interest rate".

For one-year unit time deposits, there are 10 different interest rates listed in 35 Banks, with an average interest rate of 1.91%, which is 0.31 percentage points higher than that of CPI in September. At present, the average interest rate and the real weighted average interest rate of one-year fixed deposit of commercial banks in China are higher than that of CPI in September, and China has not entered the "negative interest rate" period.

Sheng Songcheng pointed out that after the interest rate cut, the interest rate for commercial banks to deposit interest rates has completely opened up. In general, the pricing of commercial banks' deposit interest rate is completely independent. The new changes in the pricing mechanism of bank deposits determine that we can no longer directly use the difference between the deposit base rate and the CPI to judge the "positive interest rate" or "negative interest rate". Instead, we should focus on two indicators: one is the deposit interest rate of the bank, and the other is the actual deposit interest rate of the bank two.

The survey shows that the average interest rate of one-year personal and unit deposit deposit is 0.36 and 0.31 percentage points higher than that of CPI in September. Listed interest rates are commercial banks. Deposit interest rate Implementation criteria. It is determined by commercial banks on the basis of the benchmark interest rate of the people's Bank of China, and has taken into account its own business objectives, asset liability scale, customer structure, customer affordability, market competition, and the judgment of the trend of capital prices.

The monitoring of 19 major large and medium-sized commercial banks and 15 representative city commercial banks and agricultural firms shows that since the people's Bank of China cut interest rates in October 23rd, there are 9 different interest rates in the 34 banks. The average interest rate is 1.96%, which is 0.36 percentage points higher than that of CPI in September. Among them, the highest interest rate was 2.5%; the ICBC, the Agricultural Bank, the Bank of China, the Construction Bank, the Bank of communications and China Merchants Bank had the lowest interest rate of 1.75%, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than that of CPI in September.

At the same time, after the interest rate cut, commercial bank The actual weighted average interest rate for the newly absorbed one-year fixed deposit is 2.02%, up from CPI0.42 percentage points in September. At present, in the actual operation of deposit pricing, China's commercial banks generally adopt the mode of "listing interest rate + key customers / business interest rate authorization floating", that is, for the key customers or businesses that meet certain criteria, their deposit interest rates can be further increased on the basis of listed interest rates. Therefore, the average deposit interest rate of commercial banks is usually slightly higher than the listed interest rate.

PBC standardized deposit and loan comprehensive sampling statistics show that in October 24th -10 26, according to the statistics of the amount of deposits, the actual weighted average interest rate of one-year fixed deposit for commercial banks is 2.02%. benchmark interest rate 1.35 times higher than CPI0.42 percentage points in September. Among them, the weighted average interest rate of one-year individual time deposits is about 2.01%, which is 0.05 percentage points higher than the average interest rate, higher than CPI0.41 percentage points in September, and the weighted average interest rate per unit term deposit is 2.05%, which is 0.14 percentage points higher than the average interest rate of listing, which is higher than the CPI0.45 percentage point of September.