2014 August Cotton Yarn Difficult To Carry Goods, Zheng Cotton Uplink Pressure.

< p > here the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > dress < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > August, the policy of direct subsidy has not yet been promulgated, but there are rumors that the total amount of direct subsidy is limited, which led to strong rebound of Zheng cotton.

The main 1501 contract was 14020 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and rose sharply to 14930 yuan / ton after 7 trading days, rising nearly thousand yuan.

I believe that after the rise, Zheng cotton rose heavily.

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< p > < strong > global inventory pressure remains heavy < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to the latest global cotton supply and demand forecast report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in August, the total output of cotton in the world in 2014/2015 is 25 million 613 thousand tons per year, 2014/2015 consumption is 24 million 515 thousand tons, the end inventory is 22 million 880 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is as high as 93.3%.

The global supply side is loose, ending stocks remain high and the pressure is still heavy.

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< p > the report continues to raise the final inventory of China and the United States.

China's final inventory was 13 million 578 thousand tonnes in 2014/2015 and increased by 22 thousand tons.

Domestic inventory is also a topic of constant conversation. It is expected that after two to three years of digestion, domestic cotton fundamentals will improve.

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< p > the end of the United States inventory was 1 million 219 thousand tons, an increase of 115.4% over the previous year, the reason is a substantial increase in output.

In 2014/2015, cotton production in the United States was 3 million 811 thousand tons, an increase of 219 thousand tons, a 35.6% increase over 2013/2014.

Because of the high price of US cotton in 2013/2014, this has prompted us farmers to expand their cotton planting area and increase their production, while demand has not increased significantly. The increase is reflected in the inventory at the end of the year.

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< p > < strong > downstream textile enterprises are still pessimistic < /strong > < /p >

< p > 6 - August, it is the traditional off-season of a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a > industry. Downstream factories have low operating rate, tight funds, strict control of raw material stocks, and just need to purchase cotton yarn.

Imported cotton yarn has obvious price advantage relative to domestic yarn (the current price difference is around 2000 yuan / ton), especially in the middle and low yarn market, domestic cotton yarn is difficult to carry goods.

According to the survey, most textile enterprises are pessimistic. It is expected that from mid August to October, there will be more textile factories that stop production or shift production capacity, which will have an adverse impact on the integration of new and old cotton prices.

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< p > in addition, the rising cost of labor is also a major problem for textile enterprises.

The textile industry is a labor-intensive industry. In recent years, the domestic minimum wage standard has been rising and labor costs are rising.

According to the person in charge of a textile enterprise, the labor cost of the enterprise has increased by 35% in recent two years.

Because of the gradual loss of labor cost advantage, the competitive advantage of domestic cotton yarn and Southeast Asian countries' cotton yarn is gradually lost.

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< p > < strong > Direct Subsidy rule remains "dystocia" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > in recent years, domestic cotton market has been a policy city, and this year is no exception.

Unlike in the past, this year's direct subsidy policy has always been in a "difficult labor" state. At the beginning of the year, the policy of abolition of the purchase and storage policy was changed to a direct subsidy policy.

Earlier departments released the news again, announced the announcement of the policy of direct subsidy at the end of July, and the market looked forward to it, but the result was still nothing.

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"P" in the near future, it is said that the total amount of direct subsidy is limited, and the market worries that the government will hold a bottom after the excessive decline in cotton prices. This gives the Zheng cotton market, which has been hovering in the low position, as a shot of strong agent, and the price of the disk face rebounded immediately.

As we all know, the impact of national policy on Zheng cotton is very large, but at present, the policy of direct subsidy has not been released yet, and the market speculation is diverse.

For the "dystocia" direct subsidy rules, we only have to continue to wait patiently.

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< p > there is no suspense about the fundamentals of cotton market at present. However, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp" > policy < /a > is complicated and confusing. This is also a theme that can be hyped up in the near future.

Under the background of global oversupply of cotton and high domestic inventories, Zheng cotton has limited space to go up.

For the 1501 main contract of Zheng cotton, it is safer to sell short.

At present, the differences between the two sides are larger and larger, and the operation can take advantage of the situation. The high position of the early stage can continue to be held. If there is a critical support to increase the position, it will still be a good opportunity to empty the list.

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