How Long Will The Cotton Price Increase Continue To Be A Foregone Conclusion?

Cotton farmers believe that this year's seed cotton purchase price is only 9-10 yuan / kg, but it is reasonable. Acquisition enterprise It does not agree with the impact of pre disaster weather. This year, the domestic cotton production in major production areas has been foregone conclusion. Compared with previous years, cotton production will be reduced by one or two this year. In addition, cotton picking period is generally 10 days later than in previous years. Zhang Wenmin, director of cotton research and development center of Wanda futures, told futures Daily reporter.

Cotton production is reduced in most parts of the country.

From Xinjiang cotton The Association learned that the low temperature in May has affected the cotton knot peach. In 6 and July, some parts of the city of Xinjiang suffered hail. "Hailstones are as big as eggs, less than half an hour, and the cotton plants are beaten into light stalks." Xinjiang province Yuepuhu County cotton grower Han Qi said that his family's 20 mu cotton reduced production about 40%.

According to the Economic Crops Research Institute of Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinjiang's cotton production decreased by 10% in 2013, and the yield in southern Xinjiang was larger than that in Northern Xinjiang. Some ginning plants in Akesu and Kashi predicted that the cotton yield per unit area in the southern Xinjiang was concentrated in 320-380 kg / mu this year, and the yield per unit area decreased to 250-300 kg / mu in 4 and May. In addition, since mid August, some of the better growing cotton spider mites are more serious, and the yield per unit area may be down by 20% compared with last year.

At the same time, cotton production in Hunan, Shandong and other places is also concerned by the industry.

Lixian is a large cotton producing county in Hunan. Local farmers have shown that 7 and August have had a certain impact on cotton production because of drought and no rain. In 2012, the total output of cotton in Hunan province was 320 thousand tons. From the previous statistics and current situation, the total output of cotton in the province decreased by one or two compared with last year.

"Our continuous high temperature and drought, cotton production will definitely decline, and my daughter-in-law's home (Shandong), July is continuous rain, her brother's family planted 20 mu of cotton this year, originally expected to have a good harvest, but the continuous rain also shattered her brother's good wishes." A farmer in Lixian is very depressed.

Can cotton price increase and cotton price rise? {page_break}

Cotton production and cotton price rise seem to be normal logic. As the cost of physical and chemical labor and labor costs rise, considering the fact that there is a national reserve policy, cotton farmers believe that the seed cotton purchase price is only 9-10 yuan / kg this year, but the buyout companies do not agree that "seed cotton is higher than 9.2 yuan / kg, and we will definitely lose money." Henan Fugou County, a cotton processing enterprise official said.

Since September 10th, cotton processing plants in Korla, Xinjiang and Yuli County have begun to buy new cotton, and Luntai, Ruoqiang, and Mecca have been purchased sporadically, and four counties such as ho Shuo have planned to buy Korla in September 12th. Zhang Wenmin said, "compared with previous years, the cotton purchase period is delayed, the sales volume is not large. Up to now, the state has acquired more than 1500 tons of seed cotton, and the purchase price of seed cotton with 40% lint is 8.70-8.80 yuan / kg.

The cost of planting has increased by 8%-10% over the past year, and cotton production has been cut this year, so cotton growers have a high expectation of seed cotton prices. "Picking requires a large number of flower picking workers. If the seed cotton sale price is below 9 yuan / kg, we are not willing to sell."

However, in Kashi, Akesu and other places of ginning enterprises, the purchase price of 40% lint seed cotton should not be higher than 8.90 yuan / kg. If the purchase price is too high, there will be no profit for the ginning enterprises.

This month, cotton purchase and storage rules promulgated. Reporter learned from China cotton information network, the main cotton producing area in China has different purchase time, and the purchase price is 8-9.35 yuan / kg. Cotton production is reduced and cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. The market is not good enough. "On the one hand, farmers are picking up one after another, looking forward to rising prices; on the one hand, enterprises want to pay back, and look at quality and price." Wang Shufei, an agricultural product analyst at Huizhou merchants, said that the purchase price of seed cotton is on the rise. The psychological price of seed cotton purchase is at 3128B level 8.6 yuan / kg (lint 40%).

The market has strong expectations for the national price cut and storage in 9 and October, and the national direct subsidy policy for 2014/2015 is introduced. Purchasing and storage policy After the withdrawal is expected, the price of cotton will probably fall again in March of 2014, when the cotton price difference between home and abroad is expected to return.