Analysis Of Cotton Purchase And Storage Policy In 2011

Cotton prices began before September 1st.

In September 1st, the China cotton reserve management company officially started the implementation of the temporary storage and purchase plan. As of today, the market price of cotton has been successfully tested for two days.

Compared with previous years, the new flower collection and storage in 2011 has the following characteristics:

First,

Second, flexible and responsive.

As in 2008, the central storage cotton company announced the collection and storage points and quantities of each working day, and used the national cotton trading market's storage and storage system to confirm the paction.

But in the implementation process, many flexible methods were adopted: the daily price monitoring of the specialized information department, and the opening of the monitoring price to the public. Only when the price of the cotton market in the continuous five working days is lower than the temporary storage price, will the purchase and storage be started. In other words, once the price is higher than the storage price, the purchase and storage will be suspended. The central storage and storage company does not promise to store the quantity and the time to the reserve and reserve library, and adjust the collection and storage points and data of each day in time according to the needs. It only stipulates that the first batch reserve capacity is not less than 1 million tons.

Third, strictly regulate.

Processing and operation of the legal enterprise acquisition and storage are different, only those with 400 types of cotton processing qualification can participate in the storage and storage, and it is necessary to pass the joint qualification examination of the paction market and the central cotton storage company. The delivery enterprises must bear legal liability for the authenticity of the seed cotton purchase documents when delivery. If the paction is lower than the contract purchase price, the seed cotton will be listed in the industry blacklist; the cotton storage compliance requirements for the storage will be more meticulous. Compared with the previous storage, the proportion of the exposed cotton and the damaged cotton will be increased to the highest ratio; the liability for breach of contract should be clearly defined; once a breach occurs, all the deductions will be deducted at once; the storage and storage enterprises shall have a lifelong quality responsibility system for the storage and storage of cotton, and the corresponding economic and legal responsibilities should be borne when the warehouse is found out. There are more stringent requirements for storage and storage enterprises in the process of storage and purchase: facing all cotton acquisitions in 2008,

Fourth, speed up the prescription.

This year's reserve time is clearly defined in the time of the defect: real time the defect of the previous five working days, sixth working days do not meet the implementation of the standard, sixth working days do not meet the standard, the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented 4 implementation implemented within the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented within 4 implementation implementation within the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation within 4 implementing implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation within 4 an open auction is charged against an advance payment.

Fifth, elasticity is wide and pricing is delayed.

本年度收储与历年最大的不同，在收储的规模、范围、价格和期限上：未规定明确的收储量，而目前国储棉总量极少（约22.7万吨），为了稳定棉市，完全可能出现大规模收储，这就意味着，年终总收储量的弹性很大；历年收储主要面向新疆，今年实行内地到新疆的全国范围收储，收储标准也有扩大，长度要求27毫米以上（含27毫米），比2004年、2008年收储标准放宽了1毫米；为防止出现竞拍交储拉低市场价的现象，本次交储按固定价19800元/吨实行，比2008年参考收储价12600元/吨高了57%，但考虑到通胀导致的原料、土地、人工和运输等成本的提高，加上与同期粮油的比价在合理范围内，这个价格还是较为合理的；此外，相较以前分段限时收储，本次收储监测时间从今年9月1日延续到明年3月31日，有利于缓解

　　虽然今年收储方案较往年有明显改善，但仍存在较多风险因素：其一，交储违约只用扣除违约金，并无其他处罚措施，违约金比重较2008年也有所下降（2008年违约金500元/吨，为参考收储价12600元/吨的4.0%；2011年违约金300元/吨，为收储价19800元/吨的1.5%），可能导致违约发生频繁；其二，虽然结算流程加快，但交易需存放20万保证金，且本次交储单笔最小成交数量不仅较往年有明显提高，比现货交易单位也大了几倍，对于新年度资金紧张的企业来讲，并不利于资金利用；其三，按中储棉规定的籽棉收购价和皮棉收储价，算上账期的资金成本、质量检验、皮棉损耗等不确定因素，交储企业的利润空间非常小，粗略计算不高于300400元/吨，这对企业的吸引力比较有限，除非市场价格低于收储价较多，否则企业会更倾向于现货销售，实际收储数量会大打折扣；其四，在交

In the process of seed cotton purchasing, the storage enterprises may reduce the phenomenon of grade turnover, and this year there is a new flower and high-yield expectation. Even if cotton farmers are reluctant to sell at the early stage of the new flower listing, they may eventually make passive pricing.

Strict risk factors such as cotton storage specifications, lifetime quality assurance, limited profits, large unit pactions, capital occupation, economic and legal responsibilities may make cotton enterprises selectively store the market price, and do not exclude the possibility of first trading and then default to spot sales.

Integrated into the overall market, if the market price is too low, cotton enterprises will choose to pay for storage, while close to the purchase price, cotton enterprises tend to spot sales, which means that the final price of lint will also be close to 19800 yuan / ton.

Judging from the current survey, cotton farmers have expectations for the purchase and storage price. A strong reluctance to sell may delay the timing of new flower listing, plus the long duration of storage and purchase, which is likely to cause the market to enter a stalemate for a long time.

Throughout the 2010, consumption changed little, but demand fluctuated greatly. The allusion to the market was the roller coaster price of cotton.

Only when consumption and demand are consistent, market expectations are rational and speculative elements will not be much, so the industry will be in a healthy and healthy production and consumption state.

Cotton is now returning to this state: entering the August, the fluctuation range of cotton prices has shrunk to the lowest level in nearly a year, and enquiries and pactions have gradually increased; futures have converged to the spot in recent months; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been narrowing; the import price advantage of imported cotton has been highlighted; the import market has begun to recover; the difference between high and low grade cotton prices has dropped from historical highs, and the scarcity of high-grade cotton will also be improved along with the new flower listing; and the price difference between cotton and polyester has basically fallen back to the price of cotton before May 2010.

From this point of view, this country's purchase and storage is more stable cotton prices, and promote the industry's repair process.

Because there are still some problems such as high finished goods inventory, tight funds and uncertain orders in the current market, the repair process may be a long process, but with the improvement of supply and demand relationship, the industry will also develop effectively to a healthy and optimistic direction.